Has a power vacuum emerged in Iran’s regime, and who is really calling the shots? As the conflict enters its fourth week, these questions are shaping Western policy and military strategy. The answer reveals why prematurely stopping the war will almost certainly produce a far more extremist regime.
The past month has seen the US and Israel eliminate the most senior ranking officials in the Islamic Republic, including supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Mojtaba, Ali Khamenei’s son, who has now formally succeeded his father as supreme leader, was also targeted, but reportedly narrowly survived. That said, Mojtaba’s complete absence from the public eye since he assumed the mantle has led many to conclude that the new supreme leader is severely wounded and out of the decision-making picture, at least for now.
Despite incurring significant losses, there is still a high degree of coordination between the government bureaucracy, military and intelligence apparatus – the three key pillars upholding the Islamic Republic. Against this backdrop and reports that Washington has been negotiating with the “real powerbroker” in the regime, Western policy circles have concluded a new strongman has emerged in Tehran. All attention has turned to the obvious contender: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament and veteran of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – the regime’s ideological army.
But in Iran, the obvious answer is rarely the correct one. While the egotistical Ghalibaf has played to the limelight, a far more powerful figure is likely to be silently pulling the strings: Ahmad Vahidi – the new IRGC commander-in-chief who is a Khamenei absolutist.
Unlike Ghalibaf, Vahidi has remained in the shadows since the war. This is not without reason: our analysis suggests he is likely to be operating as the key cog in the regime’s chain of command and his survival is essential to its continuity. Long before the war, Ali Khamenei had entrusted Vahidi to draw up plans to further militarise the regime. If he outlasts this conflict and the regime survives, he will finally be able to implement this vision – a design that will produce a far more radical and extremist Islamic Republic.
Vahidi has unmatched experience and influence across the regime’s military, intelligence, and bureaucracy. His career began in the 1980s in the IRGC’s Intelligence Bureau, made up of the regime’s most ideologically loyal operatives. As the IRGC’s deputy for intelligence, he was hand-picked to join a secretive cohort to accompany Khamenei to visit North Korea – a trip designed to acquire missile and nuclear technology.
During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Vahidi was also one of the original members of the Ramadan Headquarters, a unit within the IRGC created to form Islamist terrorist groups globally and overseen by Khamenei.
Upon assuming the supreme leadership in 1989, Khamenei created the notorious Quds Force – the IRGC’s extraterritorial terror branch – and appointed Vahidi as its first commander. It was a testament to his loyalty. Vahidi demonstrated in that role that his vision to export terrorism was far more global than his notorious successor Qasem Soleimani.
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