Leaving Iran's Regime in Place Guarantees Endless Regional Instability

Leaving Iran's Regime in Place Guarantees Endless Regional Instability

Majid Rafizadeh

• This is precisely the moment when the greatest strategic mistake could be made: stopping halfway while leaving "moderate" extremists still in place.

• If left intact, the regime will almost certainly, at some point -- after the Trump administration's term ends -- accelerate its most ambitious and dangerous projects, most notably its pursuit of nuclear weapons along with ballistic missiles to deliver them.

• Now, faced with intensified pressure and internal fragility, the regime has, as usual, apparently signaled a willingness to negotiate. It may even agree to sweeping terms – say "yes" to anything — not because of any positive transformation but as a tactic for survival.

• A ceasefire deal now would not resolve the underlying problem -- it would freeze it in place temporarily while allowing the regime to recover. Once stabilized, it would resume its activities -- with the same less-than-neighborly objectives.

• Any agreement with this regime, or what is left of it, will almost certainly end up undoing the very gains that the US and Israel have achieved.

• The choice, therefore, is between finishing what has been started or once again facing the same reality just around the bend.

  Only two countries, the United States and Israel, have finally confronted a regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which, for nearly half a century, has held the world hostage and destabilized an entire region, all while brutally tormenting its own people.

  
  

  Iran's ruling system has built its identity on ideology — an expansionist doctrine rooted in "exporting the revolution," undermining and attacking sovereign states, and financing terrorist proxies. From Hezbollah in Lebanon, to Hamas in Gaza, to the Houthis in Yemen, to the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, to terrorist cells in Latin America, the regime has poured billions into non-state actors that perpetuate cycles of violence, weaken governments, and terrorize civilians. At home, it has maintained power through repression, torture, censorship and force.

  In recent weeks, however, despite a media landscape that often appears critical — or at times echoing narratives favorable to Tehran — the reality on the ground suggests that actual progress has been made in degrading the regime's military capabilities and its hold on power.

  In addition to having buried Iran's three major nuclear facilities last June in less than two weeks, significant blows now include eliminating Iran's air force, navy, weapons manufacturing infrastructure and many of its missile launchers. For years, Iran invested heavily in asymmetric maritime warfare — fast attack craft, mines, and unconventional tactics designed to disrupt shipping lanes and threaten global oil and gas flows. Reports and assessments indicate that key elements of this infrastructure have been permanently put out of operation– and will not be rebuilt overnight.

  This is precisely the moment when the greatest strategic mistake could be made: stopping halfway while leaving "moderate" extremists still in place.

  The Iranian regime is, at its core, ideological, and not a conventional actor that recalibrates and retreats when pressured. When wounded, it recalculates, regroups, and seeks continuance. If left intact, the regime will almost certainly, at some point -- after the Trump administration's term ends -- accelerate its most ambitious and dangerous projects, most notably its pursuit of nuclear weapons along with ballistic missiles to deliver them.

  A ceasefire deal now would not resolve the underlying problem -- it would freeze it in place temporarily while allowing the regime to recover. Once stabilized, it would resume its activities -- with the same less-than-neighborly objectives.

  Meanwhile, its network of allies — states such as Russia, North Korea and China — will provide avenues for technological support, economic lifelines and strategic coordination—as they already have been doing during the conflict.

  
  

  There is also undoubtedly the calculation in Tehran that it can outlast President Trump 's strong leadership. The regime may assume that political cycles will be less assertive, creating opportunities to reset the board on more favorable terms.

  The events of October 7, 2023, carried out by Hamas with Iran's planning and backing – and the Iranian regime's slaughtering more than 30,000 of its own unarmed citizens in just two days in January -- serve as a reminder of what is at stake. These are the downstream consequences of a system that funds, trains, and arms groups that are committed to violence and terrorism. Without addressing the source, the cycle will continue.

  
  

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