Hormuz Paralyzed: Another Tanker Hit, Floating Parking Lot Of Ships Swells

Hormuz Paralyzed: Another Tanker Hit, Floating Parking Lot Of Ships Swells

TYLER DURDEN

The latest Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel-tracking data, via Bloomberg, shows that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been paralyzed, with only a few tankers still transiting the critical maritime energy chokepoint.

U.S. Central Command said in a statement on X that IRGC naval power has been severely degraded after U.S. forces and their allies eliminated eleven warships.

Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO. The Iranian regime has harassed and attacked international shipping in the Gulf of Oman for decades. Those days are over. Freedom of maritime navigation has underpinned American and global economic prosperity for more than 80 years. U.S. forces will continue to defend it.

That may explain why Brent crude futures have not been able to sustain $80 per barrel, as traders appear to assess that the IRGC's loss of warships would make any attempt to mount a blockade short-lived, especially given U.S. naval power in the region.

Late U.S. cash session, UBS analyst Jonathan Garber told clients that "Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and they will set any ship on fire that tries to pass through, Reuters reports, citing Iranian media. WTI crude oil is now up more than 7% following the headlines."

BBG Headlines:

• IRGC ADVISER SAYS WON'T LET OIL LEAVE REGION: IRAN STATE TV

However, the loss of IRGC naval power should not lead investors to discount the regime's asymmetric capabilities, such as using missiles and drones to target tankers in the narrow waterway.

That risk appeared to materialize late in the U.S. cash session, when reports emerged that two IRGC drones struck the oil tanker Athen Nova.

Rapidan Energy Group analyst Fernando Ferreira noted:

The US-Israeli offensive has shifted Tehran's calculus from deterrence to regime survival. 

Iran cannot contest US control of the Gulf in a conventional fight, but it does not need to. Its strategy has always centered on denial, using drones, missiles, and mines to raise the cost of commercial transit through Hormuz. 

Even if the IRGC Navy takes heavy losses, the core threat remains. Drone and missile attacks can still disrupt shipping and rattle energy markets. 

With that said, the critical maritime chokepoint responsible for 20% of global seaborne oil flows now appears likely to remain disrupted indefinitely.

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Related:

• "Expect Moderate Disruptions": Oil Tankers Avoid Strait Of Hormuz As Operation Fury Hits Iran

• Three Maritime Incidents Reported In Strait Of Hormuz Energy Chokepoint