As the Israel Defense Forces approaches the final stages of its major ground operations against Hamas in Rafah, Hezbollah is ramping up its threats in an attempt to deter Israel from launching a large-scale military operation in Lebanon.
In a recent speech, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallahpulled no punches. He hinted at the possibility of the terrorist organization attacking Cyprus, boasted of a force of 100,000 fighters and threatened to invade the Galilee.
Nasrallah threatened that if Israel were to use bases or airports on the island nation, Hezbollah would attack it. While Cypriot officials denied such cooperation, the message seemed directed at the entire Western world: Hezbollah is prepared to turn the war with Israel into a regional conflict. This appears to have been a response to US envoy Amos Hochstein, who has warned the Lebanese of escalation if they don’t progress toward a settlement.
Nasrallah may be hoping that the US and the European Union will exert diplomatic pressure on Jerusalem, but in any case, he has only served to remind the world of the threat his organization poses to many countries. One need only mention Hezbollah’s drug trafficking operations, that stretch from the Middle East to South America. As such, it seems the United States might actually support a measured expansion of the offensive.
From Israel’s perspective, the goal on the northern front is crystal clear—pushing Hezbollah and its capabilities away from the border to allow residents to safely return to their homes.
Israel’s options seem poor
On the surface, all of Israel’s options seem poor: While Hezbollah has withdrawn to about 8 kilometers (3 miles) from the border, without more significant action by Israel, the terror group could easily return. Lebanon has been run by a caretaker government for the past two years, that will struggle to reach a diplomatic settlement. Israel cannot afford to rely on the Lebanese army or an international force to ensure its citizens’ security.
Finally, a war carries many risks that Israel’s Security Cabinet must carefully consider. One can only hope that more experienced voices will prevail regarding the nature of the operation.
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