While many don’t realize it, World War 3 is already underway.
Total war between the world’s largest powers that reshuffled the international order defined the previous world wars.
However, with the advent of nuclear weapons, total war between the largest powers today—Russia, China, and the US—means a nuclear Armageddon where there are no winners and only losers.
That could still happen despite nobody wanting it, but it’s not the most likely outcome.
World War 3 is unlikely to be a direct kinetic war between the world’s largest powers, like the previous world wars.
Instead, the conflict is playing out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological wars, deniable sabotage, and information wars.
Out of all these domains, I think proxy warfare will determine who wins World War 3.
Here’s the bottom line.
Russia, China, and their allies want to change the US-led world order that has been in place since the end of World War 2.
The conflict is playing out on a level that is below the threshold of direct kinetic warfare because that could invite a nuclear Armageddon.
Nonetheless, there is a conflict between the biggest global powers to determine the world order, as in the previous world wars.
As I see it, World War 3 is a conflict between two geopolitical blocks.
The first block consists of the US and its allies who have hitched their wagons to the unipolar world order.
I’m reluctant to call this block “the West” because the people who control it have values antithetical to Western Civilization.
A more fitting label would be NATO & Friends.
The other block comprises Russia, China, Iran, and other countries favorable to a multipolar world order.
Let’s call them the BRICS+, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other countries.
BRICS+ is not a perfect label, but it’s a decent representation of the countries favorable to the multipolar world order.
In short, BRICS+ wants to transform the current world order from unipolar to multipolar and give themselves a bigger seat at the table in the process.
NATO & Friends want the unipolar status quo to prevail
Conflicts among the most powerful countries typically lead to a breakdown and restructuring in the world order.
The current US-led world order was the result of World War 2.
Prior to that, the Treaty of Versailles created a new world order after World War 1 that lasted from 1919 to 1939.
Prior to that, the Congress of Vienna defined the world order. It lasted from Napoleon’s defeat in the early 1800s to the outbreak of World War 1 in 1914.
Here’s the bottom line.
Changes to the world order are historical events with enormous implications—investment and otherwise.
We’re living through one of these rare times right now.
1 comment:
Same as above. Incentive migration to locations that may be nuked.
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