Sputnik
Weeks of mounting tensions between Hezbollah and Israel spilled over into deadly violence on Saturday after a Druze town in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights was struck by a projectile, killing more than a dozen people. Israel and the US blamed Hezbollah, and the IDF has already launched ‘retaliatory’ strikes. Hezbollah has denied involvement.
A full-scale Israel-Hezbollah war threatens to devastate both sides and spiral into a regional war, and world powers must do everything in their power to prevent such an eventuality from taking place, Lebanese American University political science and international affairs assistant professor Joseph Helou told Sputnik, commenting on the precarious situation in the region after Saturday’s attack on Majdal Shams.
“Since 7 October 2023, Hezbollah has joined the war in support of Gaza. Ever since, several critical moments seemed to present themselves as the inflection point that could escalate into a large-scale war in the region. Yet, both Hezbollah and Israel seem to confine this war to the implicit ‘rules of engagement’, restricting the combat to south Lebanon and north Israel, with occasional violations of these rules, but without reaching the tip of the iceberg,” Dr. Helou explained.
“I believe that a prolonged ground invasion of South Lebanon will invite multiple foreign actors in the quagmire,” the academic warned, pointing out that both Hezbollah and Israel in their own right “possess enormous military capabilities that could make a full-blown war quite destructive for both sides.”
Unlike Hamas, for example, whose Spartan fighting forces have used a combination of assault rifles, shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles, simple garage-built rockets and a vast underground tunnel network for their war against Israel in Gaza, Hezbollah’s paramilitary wing has racked up years of combined experience fighting both Israel and US-sponsored terrorist proxies in Syria.
Moreover, unlike Hamas, which is confined to Gaza and forced to smuggle in its weapons, Hezbollah faces far fewer restrictions in its access to sophisticated armaments, and is estimated to have amassed a missile, rocket and drone arsenal potentially powerful enough to overwhelm Israel’s sophisticated air defenses.
The international community must continue the “strong diplomatic efforts” being taken “to extinguish the conflagration” before it escalates any further, Dr. Helou said. “While this does not preclude the possibility of a large-scale attack, it fosters an environment in which the conflicting parties have to recalculate their moves.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists on Sunday that there appear to be “no prospects for stopping this bloodshed,” saying Russia “condemns all terrorist actions undertaken by any organization,” and adding that the root cause of the crisis stems from the ongoing war in Gaza and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “unrealistic” plan to “completely destroy” Hamas.
Israel has already launched large-scale strikes against Hezbollah positions, and slapped the militia with an ultimatum on Sunday, demanding a complete withdraw Hezbollah forces from the border area.
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