Monday, July 1, 2024

Intelligence War Council: Iran and Hezbollah have decided to strike Cyprus together with Israel


Intelligence War Council: Iran and Hezbollah have decided to strike Cyprus together with Israel - How the attack will take place
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Israeli think tank speaks of a "Storm" in the Eastern Mediterranean


Israeli think tank JNS presents a "war storm" plan in the Eastern Mediterranean. According to the Israelis, Hezbollah and Iran have decided to strike Israeli targets both inside Israel and in the wider Eastern Mediterranean region.

According to the same sources, Iran and Hezbollah have decided to hit Cyprus too (!) if the "zero hour" comes.

In more detail, according to JNS, Hezbollah, under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, is coordinating with Iran to open a new front against Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean. The goal is to neutralize the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force, which Hezbollah perceives as the biggest threat.

No Iranian warships from the Iranian Navy or the Revolutionary Guard Navy – which could threaten Israel – are currently in the Mediterranean. However, cruise missiles and long-range ballistic missiles could be fired from bases in Lebanon or Syria against targets in the Mediterranean, specifically against ships in the Red Sea.

Nasrallah is afraid that Israel may carry out a pre-emptive strike, as the country's doctrine dictates and we have seen so many times in the past, with the highlight being the 6-Day War, during which Israel doubled its territory.   The attack could be carried out from Cypriot soil, with Israel deploying its air force to Cypriot bases, a scenario the IAF implemented with Cyprus during military exercises last year.

Nasrallah's recent warning to Cyprus was aimed at discouraging its cooperation with Israel, as part of a wider Hezbollah-Iran campaign to raise awareness among the international community about the possible consequences of an all-out war with Israel.

Nasrallah is seeking to put international pressure on Israel to prevent a major pre-emptive strike, either by air or ground strikes, including major airstrikes like those that opened the Second Lebanon War in 2006, which began with Israel's invasion of Lebanon , after Hezbollah ambushed Israeli soldiers patrolling the area.

He emphasizes that any future conflict will be significantly different, with new rules and strategies,  communicating that Hezbollah has studied the 2006 conflict and is able to improve its tactics on the ground. Is the same true for Israel?

Hezbollah's threats include a first strike on Israel that includes a ground invasion of the Galilee, possibly through tunnels, attacks on Israeli ships in the Mediterranean, deployment of swarms of drones in Israeli airspace targeting military bases and strategic installations, and attacks on its gas rigs Israel in the Mediterranean.

As we reported last week,  the Houthis are now in possession of supersonic missiles, as well as the ability to threaten shipping in the Mediterranean following the strikes on the container ships MSC SARAH V (using a supersonic missile) and MSC MANZANILLO in the Eastern Mediterranean (with drones). Another 4 ships had already been hit in Haifa, Israel, 2,300km off the coast of Yemen

The Houthis said last Wednesday that they had targeted and hit the MSC SARAH V, making use of the supersonic “Hadim-2” for the first time. We had also reported that 3 weeks ago, the Houthis had tested the supersonic solid fuel rocket, "Palestine", in the style of the Iranian Fatah. As the organization claims, these missiles are domestically manufactured, however, as far as is known, there are no facilities in Yemen for missile research and development.  So they got know-how either from Iran, or even from Russia.

Nasrallah's message is addressed to all regional actors in the Middle East, as well as the international community, which supports Israel. Some suspect that he, along with Iran, plans to impose a naval blockade on Israel in the Mediterranean Sea.

Nasrallah's goal would be to pin down Israeli aircraft to prevent them from carrying out missions into Lebanon through the use of medium- and long-range missile launchers, which the group has in abundance.

  • Key to the operations, as well as a great fear of Nasrallah, is Cyprus, which, as we mentioned above, has conducted exercises with Israel, in order for the IAF to use its territory for airstrikes in Lebanon. Nasrallah fears that Israel may pre-empt a strike by deploying its air force to Cypriot bases, a scenario the IAF played out with Cyprus during military exercises last year.
Nasrallah's goal is to prevent Israeli aircraft from carrying out missions in Lebanon against Hezbollah bases.

Cyprus is 250 kilometers (155 miles) from the coast of Lebanon.

Hezbollah officials told the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar that delegations from Israeli, American, British and French intelligence agencies met in Cyprus to coordinate military cooperation against Hezbollah and Iran

The United States and European countries are taking the intentions of Nasrallah and Iran seriously, as they are aware of their firepower.






1 comment:

Anonymous said...

A Hezbollah strike on Cyprus will reignite the ancient conflict between Greece and Turkey leading to war and breaking up the NATO alliance.