A major breach of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in Russia’s Kherson Region inundated huge swaths of land on the banks of the Dnieper River, prompting large-scale evacuation efforts in the area. Moscow claimed that the facility was damaged by a Ukrainian strike, while Kiev placed the blame on Russia.
Built in 1956, the 30-meter tall and 3.2-kilometer-long Kakhovka hydroelectric dam contains some 18 cubic kilometers of water, roughly the same volume as the Great Salt Lake in the US state of Utah.
What happened?
On Tuesday morning, Vladimir Leontyev, the mayor of Novaya Kakhovka, a city located close to the dam, said that part of the facility had been destroyed by a Ukrainian strike, which reportedly used a multiple launch rocket system.With at least 14 of dam’s 28 spans having collapsed, Leontyev said that the water level in the area had risen by more than ten meters, resulting in the town being flooded. Against this backdrop, the local authorities started evacuating residents from several riverside settlements, with some 300 buildings being vacated.
Russian officials also said that 14 nearby settlements with a total population of 22,000 are at risk of flooding. Meanwhile, Kiev assessed that some 80 towns are now in the danger zone and also ordered evacuations from the towns it currently occupies.
Who is to blame?
Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov claimed that the incident “was caused by a deliberate Ukrainian sabotage,” warning of “dire ramifications” for tens of thousands of local residents and the ecosystem.
He noted that the sabotage was aimed at cutting the water supply to the Russian Crimea peninsula, adding that that the strikes appeared to have been linked to the recent large-scale Ukrainian attacks on the Donbass front, which were thwarted by Russian defenses.
However, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky claimed that the dam was damaged in a Russian “terrorist attack,” while his top aide, Mikhail Podoliak, accused Moscow of staging the “biggest environmental disaster in Europe in decades.” He believes that the incident was meant to throw a wrench into the much-hyped Ukrainian counteroffensive that Kiev has been promising for months.
No risk to Zaporozhye nuclear plant
The dam explosion triggered concerns about the situation at Russia’s Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which is also located on the Dnieper and uses river water to cool its reactors.
However, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has a constant presence at the facility, assured that there is “no immediate nuclear safety risk at [the] plant,”adding that it is closely monitoring the situation.
The largest nuclear facility in Europe, the ZNPP came under Russian control in February 2022. Since then, Moscow and Kiev have accused each other of shelling the facility, with each claiming that the other’s actions could trigger a nuclear disaster. Zaporozhye Region became part of Russia following a referendum in September 2022, together with Kherson Region and the two Donbass republics.
Impact on Crimea
Sergey Aksyonov, the governor of the Russian peninsula, stated that while the incident at the Kakhovka dam won’t cause any flooding in Crimea, it may lead to a decreased water level in the North Crimea Canal, which serves as a key water source.
Still, he emphasized that the local water reservoirs are filled to 80% of their capacity, adding that “there is more than enough drinking water” and that efforts were underway to minimize the losses.
The upper part of the key infrastructure was “destroyed as a result of a strike,” the mayor of Novaya Kakhovka, Vladimir Leontyev, confirmed to RIA Novosti. While several of the dam’s floodgates were damaged and unleashed an uncontrolled stream of water, the underwater structure itself withstood the attack, the official claimed.
Leontyev described the incident as a major “terrorist act” and said the water level downstream had risen by up to 2.5 meters, but added there was no need for evacuations thus far. He noted that the area has seen higher water levels during previous floods caused by heavy rainfall, but emphasized that local officials were focused on helping citizens as they prepare for a worst-case scenario.
“All services work in the city, all administration employees are in place. Electricity, gas, internet, communications are available,” the mayor continued.
The dam was reportedly struck around 2am local time. A video captured from a drone has circulated on Telegram purporting to show the aftermath of the attack, with water seen flowing through the breach.
Moscow has repeatedly blamed Kiev for numerous attacks on the Kakhovka dam, warning that a breach could result in the deaths of thousands of civilians. In turn, Ukraine has claimed that Russia was planning to blow up the dam in a false-flag operation aimed at framing Kiev for the flooding.
The persistent threat was cited as one of the main reasons for the evacuation of civilians from certain communities in the area last autumn, and an eventual pullout of Russian forces from the city of Kherson to the left bank of the Dnieper River.
Russian military and civilian officials, including acting Kherson Governor Vladimir Saldo, warned at the time that many areas in the region, including the city of Kherson, could be flooded if the Kakhovka dam were destroyed.
Kherson Region was officially declared part of Russia in early October, together with Zaporozhye Region and the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, after people in those territories overwhelmingly supported the move in referendums. Kiev and its Western backers have labeled the votes a “sham” and vowed to recapture the territories using any means necessary.
Ukraine considered blowing up the dam to paralyze Russian forces who were defending the city of Kherson – and even “conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates” – a former head of Ukraine’s Operational Command South, Major General Andrey Kovalchuk, admitted in an interview with the Washington Post in December.
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