Is 'Doomsday' Approaching?

Doomsday Approaches

The Zman

The shadow that has hung over the Ukraine war is the fear that it could lead to a direct clash between Washington and Moscow. Given that both sides have large arsenals of nuclear weapons, conflict could lead to Armageddon. Compounding things is the fact that Biden cannot stop talking about nuclear war. Given his mental condition, this suggests that he is often in earshot of the decision makers, who may be seriously discussing the possible use of nuclear weapons.

The dynamic of the war thus far has been Washington poking Moscow hoping for a response, which it can use to justify escalation. First, they said that they would not supply Ukraine with Western weapons, then they sent Western weapons. Then it was long range guided missiles. Now we see modern tanks being prepped, with discussions about F-16 fighter jets on the agenda. 

All of these weapons transfers are intended to provoke a response from Moscow.

The proof of that is the fact that none of these systems can make a difference on the battlefield for a number of reasons. The biggest reason is that the West has designed its weapons to be used in combined arms warfare. Alone, these weapons are not terribly useful and may even be a hinderance to the Ukrainians. The M777 howitzer, for example, is known for being maintenance heavy. Giving the Ukrainians these weapons just adds to their onerous sustainment burden.

When you combine the psychological instability of the people running the war for the regime and the long history of provoking adversaries, the prospects of a nuclear holocaust start to look better or worse, depending upon your perspective. If the usual suspects stick to their usual patterns, it means they will keep provoking the Russians until they get the desired response. That desired response will justify some further provocation eventually leading to all out war.

The first question to answer here is what response from Russia would warrant a direct attack on Russia by NATO? The obvious answer is an attack on NATO. This is why the Poles rushed to the nearest microphone demanding war with Russia when the Ukrainian missile landed on Polish territory. The Polish president knew the plan and assumed it was go time. It turned out to be a Ukrainian missile, but the incident confirmed the thinking within the West.

Assuming the Kagan cult has concluded they need a Russian attack on a NATO country in order to launch their nuclear war, what would the West have to do in order to provoke such an attack by the Russians? That is turning out to be a tough question to answer, given what the West has done thus far. Russian people have been attacked in NATO countries like Estonia. Russian assets have been seized. The West even engineered the assassination of Alexander Dugan’s daughter.

Over the last year, the West has done a number of things that would justify a response, but so far the Russians have been careful to avoid the trap. The closest they have come to a direct retaliation was the missile barrage after the Brits set off the truck bomb on the Kerch Bridge in the Crimea. Given that the missile attacks on the Ukrainian power grid have continued, that may have been a coincidence. The missile barrage would have required advanced planning.

The fact is time is on Russia’s side and they know it. Every day this war goes on drains the West of vital resources. The Pentagon is already making noises about the Ukraine war harming its ability to deal with China. The war has also exposed the fact that Europe has let its militaries and arms production go to seed. Germany, France and Britain no longer have a military for all practical purposes. It will take them years to fix the problems, even if they find the will to do so

If the Russian have a very high tolerance for provocation, then the question flips around to the other side. What limit is there in Washington? Where is the line that the people running policy in the Biden will not cross? Given that regime players have been gleefully talking about “de-colonizing Russia” for the last year, it is hard to imagine a red line that they would not dare cross. If you are bragging about your plans to regime change Russia, you probably have no red lines.

Either way, once things got going the regime seems to have fallen into a form of the sunk cost fallacy.  They invest in new bluffing strategies in order to save the investment in the previous failed bluffing strategy. At this point, the Russians know the limitations of the West in terms of time and material. The huffing and puffing from the West is seen as a bluff, one that can easily be ignored. Will Washington accept this reality or pivot to some desperate action?

That last question could decide the fate of the world. At this point it is clear that the Ukrainians cannot win. The death toll is staggering. The Russians cannot be bluffed or bullied, so what does Washington do next? Do they try one last desperate attempt to provoke the Russians into something foolish? Are there any sane people left in Washington who can step in and stop this madness? The fate of the world may rest on the mental stability of the crazies who started the war.

Regardless, it appears that the neocon scheme to de-colonize Russia is reaching a denouement in the coming months. Ukraine is running out of men to throw into the meat grinder and the West is running out of machines. The war will end in 2023, but how it ends is the question. Can Washington find some way to strike a deal with Russia that Russia will accept? Have the Russians concluded that no deal can be made with such untrustworthy people? We will know soon.