The second potential driving force overlooked by Rudd in Xi’s economic ambition to create a “dual circulation economy” is significantly more dire. Xi may be fortifying his economy in preparation for war against the U.S. and its allies. There are many alarming signs pointing to this, including increases in military expenditure, a major expansion of strategic missile silos to house Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), the building of military bases on contested islands in the South China Sea, threats against Taiwan, threats to use nuclear weapons, armed skirmishes with India, persistent flights of military aircraft within Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and consistent rhetoric from Xi that promotes a war footing
Monday, October 25, 2021
Rumors Of 'Hybrid War' Coming:
'Hybrid war' appearing in China's toolbox of weapons
In a recent article titled 'Xi Jinping's Pivot to the State,' Australia's ex-Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, brilliantly outlines Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition to create a “dual circulation economy." In Rudd's words, this "seeks to reduce China's future dependency on export-driven growth, and instead have Chinese domestic consumer demand become the principal growth driver; thereby leveraging the enormous gravitational pull of the Chinese domestic economy on the rest of the global economy."
Rudd outlines three driving forces behind this ambition. These being changes within the Chinese Communist Party's ideological framework, the demographic concern of an aging population due to the now relaxed 'one-child policy, and a response to U.S. measures of economic decoupling from China.
These three points constitute solid arguments from Rudd, who is clearly an expert in China's domestic and foreign policies. Rudd is a voice to be listened to in this domain. He does, however, overlook two potential driving forces in Xi’s economic ambitions. These forces are critical, and it would be remiss to ignore them, particularly in light of recent developments under Xi’s regime. Both forces revolve around Xi’s inarguably increasingly aggressive foreign policies.
The first is the use of the economy to execute a Hybrid Warfare campaign.
Hybrid Warfare is defined as "a continuation of foreign policy, utilizing a combination of unconventional hard power and/or subversive instruments to achieve strategic objectives." Xi is already well underway in utilizing Hybrid Warfare to achieve his foreign policy ambitions.
An example of this is his campaign to annex or, in his words, “reunify” Taiwan with Mainland China. This has included nuclear threats against Japan as a warning to prevent allied intervention, consistent incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone using fighters and bombers, cyber-attacks, and propaganda threatening Taiwan. The strategy is to subdue Taiwan without a fight, or if this fails, to potentially utilize this Hybrid Warfare campaign in combination with conventional military action such as an amphibious assault and ballistic missile strikes against the island state.
By moving to a “dual circulation economy," Xi, in his words, is transforming the Chinese market into a "huge gravitational field attracting international commodity and factor resources" and in Rudd's words, "force the rest of the world to engage with China on Beijing's own terms or risk falling behind commercially."
Posted by Scott at Monday, October 25, 2021