Tuesday, October 23, 2018

The Taiwan Strait Is Getting Hot

The Taiwan Strait Is Getting Hot, Hot, Hot...



We posted the following in July after President Trump threw Montenegro under the bus.
Taiwan may be about to get hot, hot, hot in the next year after last night’s Commander in Chief’s ambiguous message on defense treaties.  – GMM

The United States is considering a new operation to send warships through the Taiwan Strait, U.S. officials tell Reuters, a mission aimed at ensuring free passage through the strategic waterway but which risks heightening tensions with China.
The United States is considering a new operation to send warships through the Taiwan Strait, U.S. officials tell Reuters, a mission aimed at ensuring free passage through the strategic waterway but which risks heightening tensions with China. – Reuters


But to be replaced by a doctrine of direct provocation with China, based on a bet President Xi is a Paper Tiger on Taiwan?   A crazy, dangerous gambit, in our opinion, and one that could easily be dismissed if not for the future of the world depended on it.
Extending President Trump’s logic above, we asked back in July,
“Why should my son go to Montenegro Taiwan to defend it from attack?”
NFW will the American public send their sons and daughters to fight World War III over Taiwan.  President Xi knows it, and President Trump effectively stated it in his interview with Tucker Carlson back in July, at least, that is what he seemed to imply.   The probability for a fatal miscalculation is now higher than ever.
Here’s to hoping, and praying,  John Bolton has recalibrated his China will “respond with force is fantasy” view.   And, especially,  that Defense Secretary, James  Mattis, remains in the administration.    Mr. Bolton is a known bully, possibly the force behind the resignation of U.N. Ambassador, Nikki Haley.
It was reported he even  threatened a Brazilian official in the diplomatic scrum leading up to the Iraq War,  “We know where your kids live.”   How we long for that National Security Adviser who dresses like a “beer salesman.
Let us rephrase and state it again, Taiwan is getting hot, hot, hot,  and we doubt President’s Trump and his new BFFS, President Xi, can patch this one up over a few diet cokes.

On Your Radar

Watch this space.
The world and market is asleep  in deep, deep hibernation at the wheel on this one, folks.
We leave you with this fantasy,
We are confident that Saddam Hussein has hidden weapons of mass destruction and production facilities in Iraq.  – John Bolton, 2002

Update 1:

Run, don’t walk, to today’s South Morning China Post’s piece,  TAIWAN’S COSYING UP TO TRUMP COULD SPARK A CHINA-US WAR,
This is not the first time Taiwan has become a central issue in US-China relations. In the 1960 US presidential debate, John Kennedy and Richard Nixon traded barbs over whether America should launch a nuclear war against China to protect the tiny islands of Matsu and Quemoy, or Kinmen, in the event of a communist invasion.
Trump might now see Taiwan as an increasingly valuable point of leverage over China, but Beijing will make no compromise on this politically most sensitive issue as it considers Taiwan a “core interest”.
As the US and China drift dangerously towards direct conflict, Taiwan should be cautious. The narrow Taiwan Strait could be the flashpoint that sparks war between the world’s most powerful nations. – SCMP

Update 2:

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