Saturday, April 10, 2010

IRAN: Baiting Israel to attack

Many commentaries and articles which have been written about Iran, under the leadership of M. Ahmadinejad, suggest that his administration's habit of publicly proclaiming every successful step in their nuclear progress - must have an underlying meaning or purpose. It seems obvious. They are baiting Israel to "attack" their nuclear facilities. Recent news seems to be more of the same. If Iran wasn't "baiting" then why wouldn't they covertly develop their nuclear capabilities in a quiet manner? Why would they continue to make such public proclamations with every single step in their nuclear development?

India, Pakistan and even North Korea kept their nuclear progress under wraps for as long as possible - while secretly developing nuclear weapons. Why would Iran be SO public? To me, it can only point in one direction: Iran is baiting Israel into attack, and the reasons seem obvious. Should Israel "attack" Iran, the entire (regional) Islamic world would immediately consolidate and support the newly minted "victim" in this epic struggle (Iran), and the conditions for a subsequent Islamic based group to invade Israel would be formed.

This week we see articles which seem to bolster this view:

"U.S.: Iran's new centrifuges show its 'nefarious' intentions"

Iran unveiled a third generation of domestically built centrifuges Friday as it accelerates a uranium enrichment program that has alarmed world powers fearful of the nuclear program's aims.

Iran unveiled a third generation of domestically built centrifuges Friday as it accelerates a uranium enrichment program that has alarmed world powers fearful of the nuclear program's aims.

The new machines are capable of much faster enrichment than those now being used in Iran's nuclear facilities, and Iranian officials praised the advancement as a step toward greater self-sufficiency in the face of international sanctions targeted at choking off the nuclear work.

Later on Friday, the U.S. warned about the threat of al-Qaeda pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities.

"We know that terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, are pursuing the materials to build a nuclear weapon and we know that they have the intent to use one," Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes said.

"Iran says its nuclear drive is 'irreversible'"

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, taunting the United States for trying to halt Iran's nuclear program, showcased an improved centrifuge on Friday which officials said would enrich uranium faster than existing models.

In Washington, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Iran's latest "chest thumping" about its nuclear capabilities could strengthen the push for U.N. sanctions. He said a peaceful nuclear program would have no need for faster centrifuges.

"We have to conclude that Iran has nefarious intentions with its nuclear program and that's expressly why we continue to work with the international community on additional measures, sanctions, to show Iran that there is a consequence for its failure to meet its obligations," he said.

"This is not unexpected and given what Obama is doing, I think they are really trying to show that they are getting past the sanctions," said David Albright, director of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington

"Salehi: Iran tested 3G centrifuges"

Iran unveiled a third generation of domestically built centrifuges Friday as the country pushes ahead with plans to accelerate a uranium enrichment program that has alarmed world powers fearful of the nuclear program's aims.

Iran says it will install more than 50,000 centrifuges at its enrichment facilities in central town of Natanz.

The international community does not have guarantees that sanctions could serve to change Iran’s behavior, but must continue to exert pressure on Teheran in hopes that the Islamic republic might reconsider the pros and cons of pursuing nuclear weapons, US President Barack Obama said in an interview aired Friday morning and communicated by the Reuters news agency.

"Ahmadinejad: Iran has 'fully mastered' nuclear technology"

Iran announced Friday it has advanced its nuclear technology, unveiling new, faster centrifuges and celebrating "giant steps" forward.

In a speech celebrating National Nuclear Day, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad slammed "selfish behavior" by "arrogant" countries that have tried to negotiate a halt to Iran's nuclear activity. As he spoke, a crowd chanted "God is great" and "Death to America."

Officials unveiled what they called a "third generation" of centrifuges six times faster than the ones currently being used.


It seems that almost every week Ahmadinejad proclaims some type of nuclear progress, after having reached various self-proclaimed milestones in this development effort. He makes such proclamations in a very public way. Why?

There may be multiple reasons - but it is clear that he is laughing at the idea of "sanctions".

What the U.S. and other nations fail to recognize is that we aren't dealing with a "political" situation - a situation in which the typical methods (i.e. "sanctions") could have a chance at working. No. Rather, we are dealing with the an ongoing "Holy War" - which consists of radical Islam attempting to destroy Israel - not for political reasons, but for religious reasons. Failure to understand this most fundamental fact will create sure failure.

As stated before, Ahmadinejad sees himself as the person responsible for precipitating events which will lead to the return of the Mahdi (according to his many statements in the past; it isn't a matter of speculation). This can only be achieved in the midst of ongoing war and carnage in the Middle East, and at THAT time, according to Ahmadinejad's belief system, the Mahdi will return and institute world-wide Islamic Sharia Law.

Why doesn't Iran simply attack Israel w/o this "baiting" process?

It seems apparent that Iran would prefer a larger, more widespread coalition with which to invade Israel. It would have a far greater chance of success. Additionally, Ahmadinejad would love to see the entire muslim world all fighting together against the common enemy: Israel. He knows any Israeli "attack" would bring in Russia and Turkey, among other countries in the region.

And it is worth repeating - how Russia becomes involved in the epic invasion of Israel as described in Ezekiel 38-39:

"I will turn you around, put hooks in your jaws and bring you out with your whole army..." (to invade Israel). Ezekiel 38:4.

In other words, something will happen to make Russia attack Israel ("hooks in your jaws") - as they will be pulled into the conflict like a fish gets hooked in its jaw - they will be in a position in which they have to become involved, even though they may not really want to. They will be "pulled into" this conflict. What could happen to precipitate such action on their part?

Russia is essentially building Iran's nuclear facilities. Their scientists, their work force etc. are all present at each facility. Should Israel attack these facilities, hundreds of Russian workers and scientists will be killed. Additionally, Russia has promised that any attack against Iran would also involve Russia - by definition. At the risk of losing face within the Islamic community and with Iran, not to mention the world - Russia would have no choice but to come to Iran's defense if Israel were to attack. Turkey is now in the same category.

Iran is taunting the world, but it is primarily directed towards Israel and the U.S.

This is brinksmanship at its finest. Will Israel launch at attack against Iran?

There is no way of telling, but the window of opportunity is closing fast as Iran gets closer to having a nuclear weapon every day.

Also something worth watching for: if it seems apparent that Israel will NOT attack these facilities - then watch for action involving Hezbollah from the north (under Iran's control) and/or Hamas from Gaza (also under Iran's control). This could also serve Iran's purposes for triggering warfare, as Israel could be painted by the MSM as the "aggressors" and the terrorists as "victims" - under this scenario, the "Gog-MaGog" coalition could have an excuse to invade.

But for now, the optimal situation for Ahmadinejad would be for Israel to "attack". This would come with full blown headline articles and photos of the carnage - complete with dead bodies and commentaries pointing out Israel's "aggression". This seems far preferable for Ahmadinejad's purposes - but he will take what he can get; and if he has to resort to precipitating war by use of his proxies (Hezbollah/Hamas) he will take it.

But for now - Ahmadinejad seems to be begging for option #1: An "invasion" by Israel.

It may happen: Israel has limited options. They know that sanctions won't work - Ahmadinejad has made that crystal clear. If Iran does obtain nuclear weapons, it won't be long before Ahmadinejad chooses to attempt to destroy Israel.

After all, the Mahdi is waiting.


hartdawg said...

so, in your estimation, xactly how long does isreal have to launch a pre-emptive strike before its too late? end of the year? end of summer? if isreal waits to see if "sanctions" will work it may be too late.

Scott said...

I am guessing here - but I believe Netanyahu never believed that sanctions would work - he's been around too long for that.

But diplomatically, at least if/when he goes after Iran's facilities - he can say that they tried every effort to succeed w/o violence, but they had no choice.

Thats how I believe he is playing it. Ultimately, the MSM and all those who hate Israel (aka "the world") will condemn Israel regardless.

As far as time, I keep hearing within the year = but I have heard that now for several years. The best and most important intelligence on this would be internal in Israel - and I believe they are saying by the end of the year..

We shall see...If so, I would think Netanyahu would take some action by then - but I have also heard rumors that he will strike Iran this summer.

hartdawg said...

they DONT HAVE several years by anyones standards.

Bill said...

R. Scott Sykes is probably correct in his belief that Iran is bating Isreal into a preemptive attack in the hope of bringing about the
12th Imam. Radical Islam however has no intention of stopping after annihilating Isreal. Their long term goal is to completely eliminate Western Judaeo-Christianity. Ahmadinejad is over-confident now, while Obama appears to be turning the US into a paper tiger. But Iran should beware. Mid-East countries don't want to be controled by Iran and will be happy when Western forces take the heat out of Iran's aggressive behavior. Also, Obama is unpredictable. Obama has made many attempts to control Iran by diplomatic means. Those attempts may provide justification to the US and other European countries when they provide military assistance to Isreal during the dark hours. A situation is close. There's not much time left.

Scott said...


I agree with that completely. There are many neighboring countries that are terrified at the prospect of Iran getting nukes - its not just the US and ISrael by any means (they are much quieter about their feelings on this for obvious reasons).

I think the efforts at "diplomacy" and sanctions are to "prove" that Iran won;t 'play ball' and set the stage for a subsequent "attack" on these facilities.

It should be interesting.

Hart - I agree - we are down to months in my estimation - certainly be the year's end..Thats how I see it anyway.

God Bless