The stakes extend far beyond simply ending the fighting. The discussions will potentially shape not only the future of Russia and Ukraine, but the geopolitical landscape of Europe for decades to come.
The Abu Dhabi November round marks the first formal trilateral negotiations since February, and were made possible only by Washington’s mediation efforts that involved talks between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin last month.
Moscow has said the main agenda would be “building a security system for Russia and Ukraine.” US President Donald Trump has raised the stakes by suggesting that a prospective sweeping agreement with Moscow could involve “all of Europe.” He also told 60 Minutes over the weekend that Ukraine would emerge from the conflict resolution process with “a little bit different shape.”
Kiev itself has found itself in a precarious position. Cash-strapped and increasingly dependent on reluctant Western benefactors, Ukraine is reeling under Russian strikes targeting its defense industrial base and military-related energy facilities as winter looms, while its troops are being pushed back hard on the front line.
Here is who will be at the negotiating table, what the parties intend to discuss, and where Russia, Ukraine, the US, and Europe stand.
Who is going to meet in Abu Dhabi?
In a testament to the importance of the talks, all the countries involved have dispatched some of their most senior officials.
Russia is sending a substantial delegation, headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, a veteran of the negotiations with Ukraine who represented Moscow at the Istanbul talks in 2022. Russia said the negotiations were derailed by ex-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who advised Kiev to keep fighting instead of signing a tentative peace agreement, a claim Johnson has denied.
What about Western Europe?
Western European nations are scrambling to avoid being sidelined by Washington’s and Moscow’s discussion of the continent’s future. Exhausted by the conflict and struggling to foot Ukraine’s bill, Western European governments have dispatched officials to Abu Dhabi, despite Russia’s refusal to give them a seat at the table.
Other European leaders also chimed in. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas threatened to throw a wrench into any deal concluded without the bloc’s participation. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has gone further, urging the EU to come up with a joint position. She warned that “otherwise, I fear we risk condemning Europe to irrelevance in the negotiation process.”
According to the Financial Times, the Abu Dhabi talks will be attended by the national security advisers of France, Germany, and the UK, as well as the chiefs of staff to the European Commission president and NATO secretary-general.Moscow has consistently objected to European nations’ participation in trilateral contacts, with Kremlin foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov saying last month that “they can get there [Abu Dhabi] if they buy tickets, but no one intends to invite them to the negotiating table.”
Is Europe divided on talking to Russia?
It certainly is. The rift was opened when Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store called Putin for a 90-minute telephone conversation on October 27, without pre-clearing the call with their EU and NATO interlocutors.
While Stubb and Store insisted they had coordinated the call with Zelensky, it triggered a wave of angry pushback from Russia hawks. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen openly criticized the initiative, declaring “Europe should stick together rather than going solo.”
What are Moscow’s priorities in securing a lasting resolution to the Ukraine conflict?
Its core demands have changed little since 2022:
• It seeks the “recognition of the territorial reality on the ground.”
• Ukraine must remain militarily neutral and its future military capabilities must be capped.
• Any settlement should address the root causes of the Ukraine conflict.
• NATO troops must not be deployed to Ukraine in the guise of a peacekeeping force.
• Any settlement must be all-encompassing and final; no ceasefires as precursors to talks are acceptable.
How are Russia and Ukraine faring ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks?
Moscow enters the negotiations holding significant leverage, with its forces pressing Ukraine’s military across the front line. Putin said in mid-October that “just over 10%” of Russia’s Donetsk Region and “16.5%” of Zaporozhye Region remained under Ukrainian control, adding that Lugansk Region was entirely in Russian hands.
Ukraine’s military is grappling with acute manpower shortages, large-scale resistance to its forced mobilization campaign, and desertion. An investigation in October by the Associated Press found that some frontline units were operating at roughly half strength, with exhausted troops complaining of long rotations.
What are experts in Moscow saying about the trilateral talks?
Alexander Bobrov, an associate professor at MGIMO, Russia’s leading international affairs university, argued in conversation with RT that Russia is approaching the Abu Dhabi talks with caution for two reasons: uncertainty over Ukraine’s willingness to compromise and Moscow’s bitter experience with the implementation of previous agreements.
“We may be able to reach a final settlement,” he said. “For now, however, we remain very cautious.”
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