The second wave arrived several months later, on February 28th of 2026, opening with the elimination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. For 40 days, the US military was locked arm in arm with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), striking across Iran. During that time, Israel dropped 18,000 bombs.
There was no real end in sight until, suddenly, a calm emerged as the US and Israel decided to stop direct military action. We are still in that interim.
The world is now waiting for the third wave of this war.
PBS News reported that “the Middle East is bracing for a possible return to all-out war amid concerns that the United States and Israel could strike Iran shortly after U.S. midterm elections.”
The main target appears to be Pickaxe Mountain, where it’s believed Iran has a nuclear facility and may be hiding the remnants of its nuclear material. Due to the extraordinary depth of the facility, taking it out poses a significant challenge. Complete elimination appears out of reach. At minimum, it is believed that bombs can be used to block the way to the facility, containing it for a period of time.
According to the Jerusalem Post, plans for a third wave of the Iran war have “already taken shape.”
“Foreign sources have reported that the Israeli Air Force flew through Syria and Iraq up to the Iranian border to rehearse its strikes on the Islamic Republic,” the report noted. “Israel has already used its F-35s to outwit and eliminate Iran’s radar four times dating back to April 2024, followed by using its F-15s and F-16s to carry out massive bombing raids.”
While Israel is rehearsing simulations for the third phase of the war, the entire Middle East is on edge. A New York Times headline reads, “America’s Arab Allies Brace for War as Trump’s Midterm Deadline Looms.”
One thing is sure… time is of the essence for this war. The midterm elections totally changed the calculus. The stalemate can’t last forever, and the American people object to a drawn-out conflict.
The New York Post cited experts who believe “Trump has only a few weeks to restart the Iran war.”
The midterm election results mean that the President has until January before facing major resistance from Congress, the New York Post stated.
“There is a 6-8 week window for freedom of action to continue the war in Iran,” Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Post.
“Iran appears keenly aware of this as the regime continues to push for diplomacy—while also ramping up threats across the region in an attempt to run out the clock,” the article described.
That’s a good way to put it. They are simply trying to run out the clock.They realize President Trump has a limited window of time before he is pressured into some kind of a diplomatic solution that may not be to his liking.
We also have to ask, what role is Israel going to play?
The results of Israel’s elections last week are not yet settled, with neither major bloc garnering enough seats to immediately form a majority government in the Knesset. Will that affect Israel’s involvement? Most people believe that it won’t. Israel still stands ready to hit Iran if needed, and may even jump at the chance, considering the plethora of new US senators elected who want to cut off US funds to Israel. Israel, too, appears to have a window to act to cripple Iran indefinitely before funds and military help are greatly reduced or cut off.
According to Chatham House, “the war is pushing Iran closer to Russia.”
“A flurry of diplomatic meetings and positive statements suggest Tehran sees closer cooperation with Moscow as key to its short-term survival and long-term deterrence,” they explained. “Russia is now increasingly seen as an important partner to ensure Iran’s military survival, post-war reconstruction and long-term deterrence.”
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