As polls close across the United States in Tuesday's midterm elections, the countdown to a possible renewed war with Iran is beginning again. President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled that he would not resume military action before the vote, but the U.S. military has spent the intervening months reinforcing its presence in the Middle East, preparing attack plans and positioning forces for a possible return to combat.
According to a report published Tuesday by The New York Times, U.S. Central Command has prepared plans that could allow American forces to strike Iran as early as Wednesday, immediately after the elections, with three aircraft carriers deployed in the region. The existence of those plans does not mean Trump has decided to attack. Diplomats are still trying to reach an agreement with Tehran, and the president has previously called off operations that appeared close to being launched.
But if negotiations collapse, the next confrontation could erupt at an exceptionally sensitive moment for both Washington and Jerusalem. Trump is awaiting an election that could weaken his standing in Congress, while Israel is struggling to form a government following an inconclusive election, confronting allegations of foreign interference in the vote and absorbing Trump's unexpected announcement that American military assistance will end.
The American military buildup has accelerated in recent weeks, with additional refueling aircraft, cargo planes and surveillance assets arriving in the region. The combination of operational preparations and ongoing diplomatic negotiations closely resembles the period preceding the previous round of fighting with Iran.
Trump has recently emphasized that Iran does not want nuclear weapons and would prefer an agreement. Reports have suggested some movement in negotiations, but no breakthrough capable of resolving the dispute. For now, the president retains the option of ordering strikes or continuing to pursue a diplomatic settlement.
The political environment in Washington could become more difficult if when Democrats gain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Even with Republicans controlling Congress, Trump has struggled to secure broad support for the war. In June, four Republican senators joined a vote calling for an end to the fighting.
Democratic lawmakers have promised to challenge any renewed military campaign, but their ability to intervene would face significant limitations. The newly elected Congress will not take office until January 3, leaving Trump several weeks to act under the current congressional balance of power. The president also retains substantial authority over military operations and foreign policy, making it difficult for lawmakers to halt fighting once it begins.
Israel also is preparing for the possibility of renewed hostilities. The IDF is maintaining what military officials have described as maximum readiness for both defensive and offensive operations, while Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir continues security consultations. According to reports, Zamir opposed launching an operation before the U.S. elections.
Netanyahu has not convened the security Cabinet or the full government over the latest developments and has not appeared publicly since Israel's elections last week.
Beginning Wednesday, representatives of the parties elected to the 26th Knesset will meet President Isaac Herzog to recommend who should be entrusted with forming the next government. Yashar! chairman Gadi Eisenkot is expected to receive more recommendations than Netanyahu, although his political bloc has yet to explain how it intends to establish a government without the support of Arab parties or United Torah Judaism.
Opposition leaders have nevertheless said they intend to use their parliamentary strength to advance measures even before a new government is formed. These include replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, appointing a new state comptroller and repealing legislation they describe as anti-democratic.
A renewed war is not expected to halt the consultations at the President's Residence. Officials are preparing alternative secure locations if necessary, while the Knesset has previously continued operating under emergency arrangements during wartime. Political efforts to change the balance of power could therefore proceed even as the military confrontation unfolds.
Complicating matters further is an intensifying dispute over allegations of foreign interference in Israel's elections. Shin Bet chief David Zini is reportedly at odds with Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara over the powers investigators should be permitted to use when examining suspicions that money from Qatar and Turkey financed improper attempts to influence voters.
According to reports, Zini has sought authorization to question senior Arab political figures, including Ra'am chairman Mansour Abbas, Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh and Ta'al leader Ahmad Tibi, along with another senior Arab lawmaker whose name cannot be published. Baharav-Miara has insisted that investigators present evidence establishing the grounds for such questioning before granting approval.
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