Rumors Of War: Is Russia Preparing For War?

Is Russia Bluffing?

J.R. Nyquist

“We have been living under a large number of sanctions for quite some time — our economy operates under heavy restrictions, so naturally, we have developed a certain immunity to it.”

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin Spokesperson

Is Russia going to attack NATO? Most of the submarines of Russia’s Northern Fleet have gone to sea. Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong Un will be meeting in Beijing on Wednesday. As a bonus, there will be a Chinese military parade. Russia is warning that Europe may soon be at war with Russia and China. The Russians have been massing troops and supplies in Kaliningrad and Belarus all year, preparing for a “military exercise,” called Zapad 2025, a joint military exercise scheduled for September 12-16.

Since when does a country engaged in a full-scale war have forces to spare for a “military readiness exercise”? It is a curious thing. Did Hitler engage in military exercises when his armies were hard-pressed on other fronts? Does anybody do this?

Dmitry Chernyshov has listed several indicators that Russia is about to attack NATO in the Baltic States. He sees the Zapad 2025 exercise as a repeat of Russia’s Zapad 2022 exercise. This was the exercise that preceded the invasion of Ukraine. Chernyshov sees the (1) Russian naval drills in the Baltic as an indicator. He says that (2) “almost all tanks have disappeared” from the Ukrainian front and suspects they are being readied for use against NATO. Ukrainian sources confirm that not only tanks but other Russian weapons have been used less frequently in recent weeks, as the numbers of these weapon knocked out by Ukrainian forces has declined.

(3) Russian railroad and road bridges along the Baltic frontier are being strengthened so they can support heavy armor. (4) Large field hospitals, fuel depots, and ammunition stores are being established in Belarus and Kaliningrad, where civil defense drills have begun. (5) Copying the military organization of World War Two, the Kremlin has re-established military district commands in Moscow and Leningrad (calling the St. Petersburg district the “Leningrad Military District”).

According to Lee Wheelbarger and Johnny Anderson, Russia has been mobilizing troops throughout the summer and air traffic strongly suggests they are moving troops from the Far East. Chernyshov points out that (6) “Conscription is no longer seasonal (spring/autumn) but year-round.” (7) There are also indications that certain Telegram channels are being “massively purged,” with plans “underway to shut down WhatsApp — possibly even Telegram — forcing a switch to domestic messengers.”

If we look at what Lee Wheelbarger and Johnny Anderson have been discovering on satellite maps, much can be added to this picture. The Russian logistical preparation has been intense and longstanding. The resources they are using are too massive to dismiss as an empty threat.

Some days ago the Russians launched a drone attack that appears to have been intended against a Polish ammunition depot. The drone struck a power line and exploded without reaching its target. We know there have been Russian sabotage actions in Germany. Russia is on a war trajectory. If NATO territory is invaded how will President Donald Trump react? Will Article 5 of the Washington Treaty be taken seriously? Will America then declare war on Russia as America is solemnly obligated to do? Will NATO hold fast?

It does appear that a path toward a larger war has been prepared by Russia, though it is admittedly hard to imagine a war breaking out in the coming days. Nobody is really prepared. We have watched the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the brutal knocking down of Ukrainian cities for three and a half years. We did not treat this as a warning. We did not make all the preparations we should have. Even now there is very little outward sign of alarm.