PNW STAFF
A series of war simulations conducted recently by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlight the staggering consequences of a U.S.-China conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The scenarios project losses on all sides, with the U.S. potentially losing up to 400 aircraft, 20 warships, and two aircraft carriers in the first three weeks of fighting.
These simulations emphasize the critical role of rapid U.S. and Japanese involvement; delays of even two weeks would allow China to consolidate a foothold on Taiwan, rendering defense efforts futile
China, despite its massive investments in military capabilities, also faces severe consequences. Simulations predict the loss of most of its amphibious fleet, over 50 warships, and hundreds of aircraft, alongside tens of thousands of ground troops. These setbacks would undermine China's leadership and jeopardize its broader strategic goals.
Other war game simulations over the past few years show similar consequences:
2023 North University of China Simulation: This Chinese war game envisioned a hypersonic missile assault on a U.S. carrier group. Using 24 hypersonic missiles in three waves, the scenario depicted the sinking of the USS Gerald Ford, showcasing China's capability to neutralize a U.S. fleet rapidly under certain conditions.
2023 CSIS Taiwan Strait Simulation: This exercise highlighted the costs of repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Even in scenarios where Taiwan held firm, U.S. and Japanese forces experienced massive losses, including hundreds of aircraft and dozens of ships. The war games emphasized the critical role of Japan and Taiwan's ability to counter Chinese beachheads.
2022 RAND Corporation Drone Swarm Study: In collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, this simulation demonstrated the potential for drone swarms to enhance U.S. defense capabilities. By overwhelming enemy radar and extending the reach of manned aircraft, these autonomous systems could shift the tactical balance but not eliminate the high risks involved in a Taiwan conflict.
Under President Xi Jinping, China's leadership has urged the nation to prepare for war, emphasizing readiness in both military and civilian sectors. Xi has set 2027 as the target for military modernization, aligning with speculation about potential action against Taiwan. His rhetoric has been reinforced by state propaganda and policies aimed at accelerating defense capabilities
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