Is the End Near for the War in Ukraine?

Is the End Near for the War in Ukraine?

James Fite

It has been more than two-and-a-half years since Russia invaded Ukraine, and both the people and the president of the beleaguered nation have been fighting ever since. That was during Joe Biden’s presidency, however, and his “as long as it takes” policy toward keeping American gear and tax dollars flowing into Ukraine. Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, and there has been plenty of speculation that he’ll turn off the tap. He has also said numerous times that he can end the war in a day. Lo and behold, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is now talking about peace and compromise with Russia.

In an interview with Sky News – his first significant sit-down with Western media since Trump won the White House – President Zelensky explained that he’s now considering a compromise to end the “hot” war with Russia.

“If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,” Zelensky told reporters. “We need to do it fast. And then on the [occupied] territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way.”

Zelensky continued to advocate for Ukraine’s addition to NATO, but he admitted that it isn’t possible right now, under the current circumstances. To join the alliance, Ukraine would have to end the border dispute by officially ceding the Russian-held areas to Putin – something Ukraine’s constitution doesn’t allow. Still, Zelensky hopes for NATO protection for the parts of his nation not currently held by Russia.

Putin has declared that Ukraine joining NATO would raise the threat of nuclear conflict, and western leaders fear that bringing Ukraine into the fold while its border is contested in an actual shooting war would drag the whole of the alliance into it as well – and then, quite possibly, the rest of the developed world.

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty reads:

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered and attack against them all and consequently agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with other Parties, such actions as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”

In short: Attacking one member of NATO obligates the whole alliance to join the fight. What happens if the 32 other member nations, representing most of North America and Europe, all team up against Russia? Will that be the end of it, or will it officially become World War III when India, China, North Korea, Iran, and all the other Russian allies join in? And will it stay in Europe, or will it – like the last world war – span the globe as already tense situations in other areas get rolled into the larger conflict?

If Ukraine’s leader is really willing to give up his dreams of retaking the lands captured by Russia and to – at least temporarily – stop trying to join NATO, there may actually be some ground both Zelensky and Putin can meet on to end the fighting. Losing territory yet again (recall that Russia successfully annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine during the Obama administration) would be a hard pill to swallow. But with the constant drip of dollars and weaponry from the Biden administration seemingly likely to dry up soon, Zelensky may have decided that it’s best to cut his losses before those losses include his entire country.