Is China Goading Iran Into Attacking Israel?

China Is Now Goading Iran into Attacking Israel

 Gordon G. Chang

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on August 11 told Iran’s acting foreign minister that Beijing supports the Islamic Republic defending its “sovereignty, security, and national dignity.” Wang said that killing Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh, the terrorist group’s political leader, in Tehran violated Iran’s sovereignty and threatened regional stability.

As countries around the world pressure Iran not to strike Israel — Tehran blames the Jewish state for the bomb that killed Haniyeh on July 31 — China was, in effect, publicly goading Iran to act.

Why would the Chinese foreign minister do that? Perhaps because Beijing believes that its proxy, Iran, is losing a war and has to act fast.

Hamas is a proxy of Iran. Iran’s regime believes that it is no one’s proxy, but the Chinese seem to think that Iran is indeed theirs.

Whether Iran is China’s claw or not, Tehran could not have launched the October 7 war without the direct and indirect support of the Chinese state.

First, there is Beijing’s direct economic lifeline to the ailing Iranian economy. Last year, when Iran’s crude oil exports reached a five-year high, China took about 90% of the volume, according to Kpler, a European research firm. It appears that strong Chinese demand was the reason for the increase in Iranian production.

Beijing also provided diplomatic cover for the assault on Israel. Propaganda support may have been even more important: Some 96.5% of the videos on Hamas carried on the Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok support the terrorist group. China’s Communist Party uses that platform to amplify favored narratives.

There is another telltale sign. “The proof of Iran’s status as a Beijing proxy is the continual flow of both Chinese weapons to Iran and Chinese components for Iran’s own arms,” Jonathan Bass of InfraGlobal Partners told me this month. “Everybody in the region knows this.”

Bass, who since October 7 has spoken to senior leaders of Arab League states and four of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, said the region is now especially concerned about the flood of Chinese weapons into the hands of Iran and its terrorist proxies. Regional leaders should be: All three of Iran’s main proxy groups—Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis — fight with Chinese arms.

Why is China now promoting war in the Middle East? Beijing’s approach to the region has fast evolved in the past half decade. Not long ago, Chinese policymakers had traditionally tried to maintain a balancing act by developing relationships with all sides and steering clear of the region’s multiple conflicts.

China, until the killing of Haniyeh, seemingly was driving events in the Middle East, but it now looks as if Beijing’s green light for an Iranian attack on Israel is an attempt to stop an unfavorable trend.

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