The first month of 2024, as well as the previous few years, were marked by further escalations in the Middle East. This time, on January 12, the US and the UK conducted a military operation against the Houthis in Yemen. Washington used fighter jets and Tomahawk cruise missiles to strike areas controlled by the movement, killing five Houthi fighters and injuring six.
US President Joe Biden said the operation was in response to "unprecedented attacks by the Houthis on international maritime vessels in the Red Sea," which included anti-ship ballistic missile strikes. The American leader said the strikes were defensive in nature.
The US-UK coalition attack was condemned by the Houthis, who vowed to retaliate. The movement's spokesman, Mohammed Abdulsalam, said the strikes were "blatant aggression"and would "not go unanswered." This also raised concerns about the potential for a wider regional conflict. The Houthis are backed by Iran, which has been accused of providing them with weapons and training. The US and its allies are concerned that the Houthis could use these weapons to attack American interests in the region.
One of the most important factors that led to the confrontation between the West and the Houthis is the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in Gaza. The Houthis declared their full support for the Palestinians back in the early days of the Israeli operation. The duration and intensity of the conflict with Hamas leads to the expansion of the geography of the conflict and the involvement of new participants – first proxy groups, and in the future possibly entire countries.
There are a number of other factors that could contribute to a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. One is the ongoing civil war in Yemen and Saudi-led intervention, which has dragged on for seven years and has caused a humanitarian crisis. Another is the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, both of which are vying for influence in the region. Still, it is too early to say that a regional war in the Middle East is inevitable – but every regional escalation, including the US-UK strikes on the Houthis, could bring it another step closer.
Today, the Houthis control 14 of the 22 provinces of Yemen (mainly in the north and west), the Red Sea coast and major cities, and hold Sanaa. The internationally recognized government of Yemen, until recently, was located abroad in Riyadh. But members of the government and parliament have begun to return to Aden, the temporary capital in the south of Yemen.
The continued Houthi attacks on ships demonstrated the ineffectiveness of Operation Guardian of Prosperity. Clashes with American warships could not go unanswered, as this would undermine the image of the US Navy and create an unpleasant precedent. It is for this reason, most likely, that the decision was made to launch missile strikes on Ansar Allah positions in Yemen.
The coalition tried to intimidate the Houthis and stop their Red Sea attacks by demonstrating force, but it is already clear that this only further escalated the conflict in the region and the conflict in Gaza. Operation Guardian of Prosperity could have the opposite effect and expand the territory and participants of the conflict in the Middle East.
The concerns of the Gulf monarchies are not unfounded, as this has happened before. The conflict could indeed expand and threaten the movement of oil and gas tankers in the Persian Gulf, through which more than 30% of the world's hydrocarbon exports are transported. Such a development would lead to a global recession and hit the economies of the Gulf states and most of the world.
It would be incorrect to say that the US-led attacks on the Houthis alone will provoke a large-scale regional conflict in the Middle East, but the continuation of such incidents could open the "gates of hell" and lead to a more intense involvement of the "axis of resistance" in different corners of the region in the fight against Israel and the West.
The situation cannot be resolved with an escalating use of force by the West, but only by ending the conflict in Gaza. Judging by statements from US officials about the need to reduce the intensity of IDF operations in Gaza, Washington understands this. But the problem is that the gap between the administrations of Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is growing. Washington is putting pressure on the Israeli authorities to stop the conflict in Gaza, but Netanyahu does not want this, as he understands that a ceasefire will lead to his loss of power and the start of a criminal process against him. The situation is deadlocked, and the fate of Israel, as well as the entire Middle East and American policy in the region, depends on its outcome.
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