Amir Tsarfati: Coming Northern Conflict — The Big War Has Yet To Commence
The mood in my country is tense. While the operation in Gaza is going exceedingly well, we know that the big war has yet to commence.
The conflict with Hezbollah must come, and it will come. When it does, it will be brutal for the entire nation. Hezbollah is much better armed, much better financed, and much better trained than Hamas. The Iron Dome and our other air defense systems can only do so much against the thousands of rockets that will come racing across our northern border. I fully expect that by the time it is all said and done, the skyline of Tel Aviv will look different, as will many other parts of the country.
The hardship many families are feeling most now, and expect to only get worse, is the separation of spouses from one another and parents from their children. My wife and I already have one of our children who has been called up into the military. We expect that number to rise to three of our four within the next several months. Many have been away from home since the beginning of the conflict, and the resulting closing of businesses and the accompanying financial hardships have been devastating.
Once again, the months ahead will be a difficult time, but a necessary one. We cannot live any longer with the constant threat from a belligerent and active terrorist army just across our border. Again, this will not be a war with Lebanon, but it will be a war in Lebanon.
Hezbollah is fully entrenched in that country, and they have so infiltrated the nation’s government and leadership infrastructure that the large percentage of Lebanese citizens who desperately want them out have no power or authority to do anything about it.
The war in Israel’s north will likely not remain just in Lebanon. The many terrorist militias that are based in Syria make it probable that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will have a dual-northern front. Already, Israel’s military has moved four divisions, or approximately 100,000 soldiers, to the north. This is four times the usual number.
The Battle of Khan Yunis continues to rage. The taking of this hometown to many of the Hamas leaders is strategically essential if the IDF is going to get a strong foothold in central Gaza. The tunnel system is vast and contains the headquarters for most of the terrorist leadership who have surrounded themselves with a human shield of our 136 hostages.
The action here is more difficult than that in Gaza City and its surrounding areas because there are still many Gazan civilians taking shelter in the area. The IDF must be very precise in their actions and their military intelligence must be strong if they are to effectively take out the terrorists without harming non-combatants. The difficulty of their task is enhanced by the many members of Hamas who operate without uniforms. These terrorist soldiers will come up from tunnels unarmed and dressed as civilians. Once on the street, they will grab up one of the thousands of weapons that are stashed throughout the city and open fire.
But what makes this war the most difficult is that the IDF is fighting a new type of warfare that no military has had to deal with in history. As we continue the difficult above ground war, we are simultaneously having to fight the near impossible battle below ground in the maze of tunnels where 20,000 well-trained terrorists are hiding. This is what is taking so long...
Lebanon and Syria
Although a full-out conflict has not yet broken out on Israel’s northern border, there is still activity daily. Hezbollah regularly fires dozens of rockets directed at Israeli towns and villages. Israeli strikes, using jets, missiles, and drones, against the terrorist organization’s infrastructure and against the terrorists themselves are a near daily occurrence. As mentioned above, both sides are training and preparing for the war that is coming.
To the east of Lebanon in Syria, terrorist militias prepare for their opportunity to race south across Israel’s border. This second front in the coming northern conflict is purely a product of Iran, which arms and funds these violent bands.
As proof of Tehran’s activities in Syria, a Saturday missile strike in Damascus, courtesy of Israel, killed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence chief for Syria and four other IRGC members. The Persian ayatollahs are not strong enough to come at Israel directly, so they use disposable Arab minions to do their dirty work.
An interesting development has arisen along the Syrian/Israeli border, this one originating out of the far north. Russia has been gradually decreasing their presence in Syria, as more and more troops are needed in Ukraine. However, the Russian Air Force has now begun flying patrols along the “Bravo Line” which divides the Golan Heights between Syria and Israel. Although the Russian military has been in Syria since 2015, this is the first time that its jets will be flying regular patrols along Israel’s northern border.
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