The confused and haphazard U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August on Biden’s orders has had far-reaching consequences well beyond the borders of that primitive country and the confines of the Middle East. The wisdom of the retreat is debatable but what is not up for debate is the way it was carried out, which evoked memories of America’s disorderly flight from Saigon in 1975.
China, under the leadership of its “President for Life,” Xi Jinping, is attempting to assert itself as the world’s dominant superpower. Their economic might is second only to the America’s. They have the largest naval surface fleet (with two aircraft carriers and a third under construction) and largest standing army in the world, and third largest air force. Backed by this political and military might, the Chinese are, with ever increasing belligerency, threatening their bordering neighbors, and flexing their muscles in the South and East China Seas.
Xi and his advisers have been carefully scrutinizing Biden’s foreign policies and its safe to assume that they are largely unimpressed by administration’s fecklessness. The abandonment of Afghanistan is but one example. Iran is another. The Biden administration has been desperately trying to get the Iranians to re-enter the JCPOA and the desperation is palpable. The Iranians for their part are slow walking the process while they continue to enrich uranium and advance their WMD project. In Ukraine’s Donbas region, the Russians have been waging a proxy war in an effort to undermine Ukraine’s democratically elected government. They’ve also massed 75,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders to exert further pressure. Aside from offering platitudes, the Biden administration seems incapable of responding.
China currently maintains at least 17 separate land and maritime disputes with its neighbors and has shown a demonstrable propensity toward military aggression. Shortly after the Communist takeover of China, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army invaded and conquered Tibet. In 1962, the PLA invaded India in Ladakh, and across the McMahon Line in the then North-East Frontier Agency (also referred to as Arunachal Pradesh). In 1969, PLA troops attacked and ambushed a Soviet force garrisoned at Damansky Island, a small remote Island in Russia’s southeast that marked the border between China and the Soviet Union. That attack nearly sparked nuclear conflagration. And in 1979, the PLA invaded Vietnam, sparking a war that resulted in 125,000 dead and wounded cumulatively.
The Soviet Union, India and Vietnam were all ostensibly brotherly allies of China, yet China had no qualms about resorting to military aggression to unilaterally enforce its dictates. China is now turning the bulk of its attention to the South China Sea and Taiwan. China claims nearly the entire South China Sea as within its Exclusive Economic Zone, a view that is contrary to well-established international maritime law.
To secure its claim, China has been aggressively patrolling this area with its large naval fleet and pillaging it with its vast fishing fleet. Utilizing sand dredgers, China has also constructed several artificial “islands” in the South China Sea, some of which have been militarized with radars, anti-aircraft batteries and airfields capable of accommodating military aircraft. The construction of these Islands has caused untold environmental damage to surrounding maritime life, but the Chinese don’t seem too bothered by this.
The South China Sea is important for several reasons. First, one-third of the world’s maritime traffic travels through it. Second, it contains 12 percent of the world’s fish catch. Third, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that the South China Sea holds about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Lastly, America’s maritime link from its west coast to India and the Mideast runs directly through the South China Sea.
China has also trained its sights on Taiwan, a democratic, strategically placed Island nation of 24 million, which China claims as a province. Most of the island’s inhabitants consider themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese and prefer closer political, economic, and military ties with the U.S. and the West rather than China.
Xi has not minced words in his dealings with Taiwan. He has stated unequivocally that use of force to conquer the island is an option, though he prefers peaceful reunification. In October, China’s top legislature rubberstamped a law designed to give Xi the legal imprimatur to utilize all forms of aggression, including military aggression, to secure land and maritime rights that China claims. The law stipulates that “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the People’s Republic of China are sacred and inviolable.”
In the meantime, China is currently engaged in a hybrid war of sorts against Taiwan employing various schemes to grind down the country’s resolve, morale, and capabilities. Chinese military aircraft – bombers and fighter-bombers – routinely enter Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) forcing Taiwanese fighters to intercept. Chinese sand dredgers are systematically dredging sand off the seabed floor near Taiwan’s outlier islands, destroying fishing resources and causing irreparable environmental harm. China is also employing its diplomatic and economic prowess to isolate Taiwan.
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