Monday, November 8, 2021

The Rise Of Emmanuel Macron: Will He Step Into Merkel's Role As 'De Facto' EU Leader?

Emmanuel Macron's road to the presidency may explain his blunt approach to international diplomacy



From the start, Macron has sought to rule like Jupiter — "unchallenged and detached from trivialities, like the Roman god of the skies".

But the day-to-day demands of politics have made that lofty goal hard to reach, especially with his popularity plummeting ahead of a looming election.

And so when an ally turned around and blindsided the leader, a humiliated Macron was eager to find a way to settle the score.

Macron has always been something of an outsider within France's political establishment.

William Drozdiak, who released a book last year about the French leader's efforts to shape the future of Europe, says Macron prides himself on the fact that he is not a career politician.


"He had never been elected to any kind of public office before becoming President," he told the ABC.

"And in a way, that has been part of his problem because he doesn't have a lot of political experience."

With a masters in public policy, Macron had been an investment banker before he was recruited to serve as then president Francois Hollande's deputy chief of staff.

In almost no time at all, he was appointed minister of the economy, going on to make a name for himself over a package of economic measures to open up regulated sectors of the economy.

Dubbed the Macron law, the labour market reforms drove tens of thousands of people to the streets for months of protests across France.


Macron has also built a reputation as a risk-taker, appearing to sense moments when he can take a political gamble.

That was certainly the case in 2016 when he defied his critics and started his own party, giving up a secure role in an established government where he was viewed as a potential successor.

His tilt at the presidency was another bold, calculated risk that could have ended badly.

Opponents initially dismissed the move, viewing the young politician as either overly ambitious or too green for his bid to be taken seriously.

But En Marche! was France's answer to the rising popularity of anti-establishment parties across Europe. And its grassroots campaign successfully managed to draw in disillusioned voters from the left and the right with its promises of tax cuts, liberal social policies, and plans to strengthen the European Union.


Macron's eventual victory stunned almost everyone. Not only was he France's youngest-ever president, at just 39, but the first to not be aligned to either the Socialists or the conservatives.

"I think he's someone who's very hard and determined behind the amiable and seductive facade," one of his biographers, Anne Fulda, told the BBC.

As President, Macron has continued to be a deft hand at the game of politics, building a reputation for his rather aggressive diplomacy.

Drozdiak says the French President is well known for "showing a bit too much arrogance in his dealings with the people".

"He's not a natural politician … so he's willing to be much more candid and more forthright in expressing his displeasure with other states," he says.

This approach has often been on display in Macron's handling of diplomatic stoushes and his interactions with the public.

Only two years ago, Macron decried the "brain death" of the NATO alliance in an interview with The Economist.

And he has not shied away from recalling French ambassadors over perceived insults.

In 2019, Macron withdrew his representative from Italy for the first time since World War II over "unfounded attacks and outlandish claims" by Italian leaders.

The following year, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's suggestion the French President needed a "mental check" was met with a similarly swift response.


It's perhaps no surprise then, that Macron hit back hard in the wake of the loss of a $90 billion submarine deal and the secretive nature of Australia's alternative arrangement: AUKUS.

After weeks of frosty commentary from his countrymen about the last-minute "stab in the back", a withdrawal of ambassadors and a "candid" phone call with Morrison, Macron made the depth of his displeasure known at the G20.


German Chancellor Angela Merkel's departure provides an opportunity for Macron to step into her shoes as de facto EU leader, just as Australia looks to renegotiate a major deal with its second-largest trade partner.

Though Macron's own behaviour in Europe may make it harder for France to take the leadership role in Brussels, with analysts observing the French leader has acted "with too heavy a hand".

As an Indo-Pacific neighbour, France has military bases in New Caledonia and French Polynesia, as well as 7,000 personnel and 1.5 million citizens dotted across its territories.


More...

No comments: