The departure of an Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander from Syria this month has led to some speculation in regional media that the Syrian regime is seeking to recalibrate its relations with Tehran. Two Saudi news outlets claimed that the officer was removed at the direct order of President Bashar Assad. According to the reports, in Al Arabiya and Al Hadath, the independent activities of the officer, in violation of Syrian sovereignty, led to the order for his removal.
An additional article by Lebanese commentator Ali Hashem at Al-Monitor purported to provide further details regarding the growing sentiment at the top of the regime against the Iranian presence.
According to Hashem, who quotes an unnamed source, Assad himself is cautious and wishes to avoid pressuring the Iranians to leave. A second camp wishes to take a firmer stance, intended to induce the Iranians “to accept that the war in Syria is over and there is no need for their presence.” This camp, according to Hashem’s source, includes the president’s wife, Asma, and the president’s younger brother, Maher.
The officer in question, Gen. Javad Ghafari, was appointed commander of the IRGC’s forces in Syria at the height of the civil war, in 2015. He replaced IRGC general Hossein Hamadani, who was killed in that year – the highest ranking Iranian commander to die in Syria.
Closer observation of events in Syria suggests that these claims should be treated with some skepticism. That Ghafari was deployed in Syria and has now departed is not in doubt. But the extent to which his departure reflects a Syrian effort to detach the regime from its Iranian patrons remains deeply open to question.
This is for two reasons: firstly, because the timing of the supposed expulsion fits perhaps a little too neatly with a current Arab diplomatic campaign to bring the Assad regime back to international legitimacy.
Secondly, and more importantly, because available evidence from the ground suggests no significant change in the Iranian deployment in Syria.
Rather, the Iranians are continuing both in efforts to entrench their presence in the country, and in the cloaking of these efforts by weaving them into the deployments of the official Syrian Armed Forces.
Iran today possesses an extensive infrastructure in Syria. This includes exclusive control of a border crossing, (Albukamal-Al Qaim, between Iraq and Syria,) and the roads leading from it, and an extensive archipelago of bases and positions extending to the border with Israel.
It has established Hezbollah-style militias in southern Syria, recruited for pay from among the impoverished Sunni population. In addition, through such formations as the National Defense Forces, it has created structures that are today part of the official security forces. Certain bodies of long standing within the security forces, such as Air Force Intelligence and the 4th Division also work closely with the IRGC.
In the latest evidence emerging of Iran’s activities on Syrian soil, a report at the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights this week noted that Iranian positions in the Albukamal area took down Iranian and militia flags on November 12, replacing them with Syrian regime banners. This followed a deadly attack on November 10 by unidentified drones, according to SOHR, which maintains a network of informants across Syria and in the relevant area. A neater illustration of the interconnectedness of the Iranian element and the regime would be difficult to find.
The Israel-based Alma Center, meanwhile, published a report claiming Iran is in the process of smuggling surface-to-air missile systems into Syria. If confirmed, this would constitute the latest evidence of the deepening and widening threat of the Iranian presence.
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