Monday, May 24, 2021

Iran And Hezbollah Now Undeterred For Next Round Against Israel

Iran thinks Hamas “victory” will lead to new attack on Israel

Iran’s Tasnim news says that the fuse lit by Hamas will become a “fire” of a new operation in the future. 

The report, reflecting the Iranian regime thinking, details how Hamas won the recent war by not losing. Indeed, Iran helped push for this war, but was concerned Hamas and its other proxies in Gaza would lose badly. Instead they see surprising victory. The report says there are indicators to determine defeat or victory in war. Iran has weighed them and believes Hamas won. 

This matters because it means Iran and Hezbollah are not deterred in the next round against Israel. 

Here is why.  

Tasnim says we must begin at the starting point of the war to see the “achievements and failures that occur for each side during its days.” The “aggressor” must achieve military goals to have victory. “Otherwise, the side to which the war was imposed will win.” 

What were the goals of both sides. “As mentioned, the Palestinian resistance groups entered the war with the aim of defending the people of Jerusalem and the holy places and preventing the completion of the project of Judaization of this city with the focus on the unity of all Palestinians.” Important here is the unity of Palestinians. 
Iran thinks Israel’s goal was to “kill civilians in Gaza in the first place with the aim of pressuring the Palestinian resistance to surrender or grant concessions to the Israelis in any negotiations for a ceasefire, and secondly to destroy the command centers of the Palestinian resistance groups.” In fact we know Israel only sought the second aspect here. 

Iran says Israel targeted rocket launchers and Hamas commanders. This is true, Israel hit some 650 rocket launchers and 25 commanders. Hamas commander Mohammed Deif survived. What was the performance of the “resistance in achieving its goals in the 12-day war?”

 Iran’s analysis is more interesting than that found in more western media and pro-Palestinian accounts. It says “first we must evaluate the goals of the Palestinians and the degree of success in achieving them and the performance of these groups in the days of war.”

Iran calls Israeli airstrikes hasty and lost Israel public opinion. But Hamas faced unprecedented precision attacks, the report notes. Tasnim claims that Hamas rockets also led to “unprecedented fear and terror that had taken root in the hearts of the Zionist settlers following the rocket attacks on Israeli cities and towns.” This is not accurate. 

The report says that Israel was “forced to resort to Arab and international mediators for a ceasefire by unofficially admitting their inability to continue the war…Despite the Zionist army's boasting about a ground attack on Gaza, which turned out to be a major scandal for Israel in the media after it was revealed to be false, the Zionists did not dare to attack Gaza and relied only on their air force aggression.” 

Indeed, Iran and Hezbollah are now plotting. They know that Hamas, under blockade, performed well for 12 days. “They kept Israel under fire.” Next the report quotes Amos Yadlin and Ron Ben-Yishai. The point they are making is that Israelis have been critical of the recent conflict. “Israel's defeat in the military, media, social, intelligence and economic dimensions of this war is also discussed in detail.” 
Israel is the loser of this war because, “despite having abundant military capabilities that are not comparable to the Palestinians, could not prolong the war. They did not even dare to attack Gaza by land. Thus, he was eventually forced to accept the ceasefire unconditionally and at least save their positions in occupied Palestine from resistance missiles,” the report says.  
The Palestinians achieve several things. First, “in this war, the Palestinians, unlike the previous three periods, targeted the entire occupied territories with their missile attacks.” It points to the continuous fire on Tel Aviv. Palestinians have “moved beyond a purely defensive position and, with a systematic strategy, focus on the enemy's strategic goals, including economic infrastructure and critical positions.” 

A total of 4,360 missiles and rockets were fired in 11 days. It notes that in the 51-day battle that took place in 2014, about 4,600 rockets were fired into Israel. It says that twice as many Israelis were killed this time. “In the early days of the war, the Palestinians unveiled several advanced missiles and drones.” These include a new “Qasim” missile and new drones, as well as the Ayash long-range rocket and the Badr-3 short range munition. Drones are a major milestone for Hamas and they are based on Iranian design. The report says that Hamas increased the accuracy of its missiles.  

The big victory was bringing on board support from abroad and mobilizing protests across the world. It “put the Arab nations and all the free people of the world in a single position to defend the Palestinian nation and cause.” 

Now the report says “public opinion, and the countries that wanted to compromise with the enemy will retreat from this decision for at least a long time.” That means the real victory may have been slowing down the process of normalization. Turkey and Iran are reaching out to Saudi Arabia to prevent normalization, for instance. 

... the realities of this war have shown that all Palestinians are ready to make any sacrifice to defend their cause and land and raise the flags of resistance in unison.” 

This is important because it means Iran’s real goal was to sabotage Israel-Gulf ties and isolate the Palestinian Authority. Hamas may be more popular now than when it first came to power in Gaza. “Hamas will be a definite winner if elections are held,” the report notes.  

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