Iran thinks Hamas “victory” will lead to new attack on Israel
Iran’s Tasnim news says that the fuse lit by Hamas will become a “fire” of a new operation in the future.
The report, reflecting the Iranian regime thinking, details how Hamas won the recent war by not losing. Indeed, Iran helped push for this war, but was concerned Hamas and its other proxies in Gaza would lose badly. Instead they see surprising victory. The report says there are indicators to determine defeat or victory in war. Iran has weighed them and believes Hamas won.
This matters because it means Iran and Hezbollah are not deterred in the next round against Israel.
Here is why.
Iran says Israel targeted rocket launchers and Hamas commanders. This is true, Israel hit some 650 rocket launchers and 25 commanders. Hamas commander Mohammed Deif survived. What was the performance of the “resistance in achieving its goals in the 12-day war?”
Iran’s analysis is more interesting than that found in more western media and pro-Palestinian accounts. It says “first we must evaluate the goals of the Palestinians and the degree of success in achieving them and the performance of these groups in the days of war.”
The report says that Israel was “forced to resort to Arab and international mediators for a ceasefire by unofficially admitting their inability to continue the war…Despite the Zionist army's boasting about a ground attack on Gaza, which turned out to be a major scandal for Israel in the media after it was revealed to be false, the Zionists did not dare to attack Gaza and relied only on their air force aggression.”
The big victory was bringing on board support from abroad and mobilizing protests across the world. It “put the Arab nations and all the free people of the world in a single position to defend the Palestinian nation and cause.”
Now the report says “public opinion, and the countries that wanted to compromise with the enemy will retreat from this decision for at least a long time.” That means the real victory may have been slowing down the process of normalization. Turkey and Iran are reaching out to Saudi Arabia to prevent normalization, for instance.
... the realities of this war have shown that all Palestinians are ready to make any sacrifice to defend their cause and land and raise the flags of resistance in unison.”
This is important because it means Iran’s real goal was to sabotage Israel-Gulf ties and isolate the Palestinian Authority. Hamas may be more popular now than when it first came to power in Gaza. “Hamas will be a definite winner if elections are held,” the report notes.