As the world continues to grapple with the effects of COVID-19, no part of society seems to be left unscathed. Fears are surmounting around the economy’s health, and dramatic changes in life as we know it are also underway.
In today’s graphic, Visual Capitalist's Iman Ghosh uses data from a World Economic Forum survey of 347 risk analysts to show the likelihood of major risks we face in the aftermath of the pandemic.
The Most Likely Risks
In the report, a “risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition with the potential for significant negative impacts on various countries and industries. The 31 risks have been grouped into five major categories:
- Economic: 10 risks
- Societal: 9 risks
- Geopolitical: 6 risks
- Technological: 4 risks
- Environmental: 2 risks
Among these, risk analysts rank economic factors high on their list, but the far-reaching impacts of the remaining factors are not to be overlooked either. Let’s dive deeper into each category.
Economic Shifts
The survey reveals that economic fallout poses the most likely threat in the near future, dominating four of the top five risks overall. With job losses felt the world over, a prolonged recession has 68.6% of experts feeling worried.
The pandemic has accelerated structural change in the global economic system, but this does not come without consequences. As central banks offer trillions of dollars worth in response packages and policies, this may inadvertently burden countries with even more debt.
Another concern is that COVID-19 is now hitting developing economies hard, critically stalling the progress they’ve been making on the world stage. For this reason, 38% of the survey respondents anticipate this may cause these markets to collapse.
Which Risks Are of the Greatest Concern?
The risk analysts were also asked which of these risks they considered to be of the greatest concern for the world. The responses to this metric varied, with societal and geopolitical factors taking on more importance.
In particular, concerns around another disease outbreak weighed highly at 40.1%, and tighter cross-border movement came in at 34%.
On the bright side, many experts are also looking to this recovery trajectory as an opportunity for a “great reset” of our global systems.
This is a virus that doesn’t respect borders: it crosses borders. And as long as it is in full strength in any part of the world, it’s affecting everybody else. So it requires global cooperation to deal with it.- Gita Gopinath, IMF Chief Economist
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