A top independent Australia-based think tank which regularly advises the Canberra government has produced a "risk assessment" studying the likelihood of America and China going to war. Involving defense experts around the world, the study was undertaken on the heels of the US sending two carrier strike groups to sail through the South China Sea in provocative "freedom of navigation" operations.
Given that "normalization" with China — a longtime foreign policy emphasis which goes back to Nixon and Carter — appears to have gone out the window during this latter half of the Trump administration, there's lately been much forecasting on the potential for the US and China to stumble into war. While there's already for the past couple years been much ink spilled over the possibility of the US and China falling into the so-called Thucydides Trap, this latest assessment is among the most dire predictions to date in terms of conclusions reached.
Top daily newspaper The Australian introduces that leaders in Canberra woefully underestimated the potential for significant regional conflict upon being warned over a decade ago.
"Back 14 years ago in 2006 Australia’s top defence analysts, Air Power, set out in a long document for the Foreign Affairs Committee the emerging power of China contrasting with the looming American decline. It was a remarkable forecast," the report begins.
Defense leaders at the time ignored and dismissed what they saw as an overly pessimistic view of US capabilities and its role in the world, The Australian continues:
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