Thursday, July 11, 2019

Another Gaza War On The Horizon


Security and Defense: Five years later, another Gaza war on the horizon




There’s little doubt that the next war between Israel and the Gaza Strip is not far away, and it will be deadlier and more destructive than any previous war.

In the last war between the two, Operation Protective Edge in 2014, Israel lost 68 soldiers and six civilians. Some 2,500 Palestinians are believed to have been killed, roughly half civilians and half combatants.

Estimates for casualties in the next war are much higher toll, for soldiers and civilians.

IDF officials have repeatedly said that any future war with Israel’s enemies, be it Hamas in the Gaza Strip or Hezbollah in the North, will have to have a clear and decisive win by the Israeli military so that the other side will think twice about going to war in the future.


IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi has prioritized the southern front as the most likely to explode into conflict. He has already approved operational combat plans and recently set up an administrative unit to handle the formation of a list of potential targets in the coastal enclave for when the next war breaks out.

Israel’s military, which has had the past five years to recover and plan for the next war, says it’s prepared. Its troops have increased training, ammunition and weapons have been restocked with four times the amount as before the last war, and military intelligence has hundreds of targets ready.
Israel has also completed more than half of its 65-km. underground barrier to stave off attacks by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) via cross-border attack tunnels. Israel has already finished the maritime portion of the barrier, meant to stop any attacks by Hamas frogmen.

Since the end of Operation Protective Edge, Israel has been able to locate and destroy 18 cross-border tunnels. While it is believed that most of the tunnels have been exposed, the IDF announced on Monday that it had discovered an old tunnel dug by Hamas in the southern Strip.

But while the army says most of the cross-border tunnels have been destroyed and no longer pose a threat, the IDF knows that any tunnel opening found inside the Strip is connected to a network of tunnels, full of weapons and fighters.

The IDF knows the next war will include an all-out ground offensive, as an air war alone will not bring Hamas to its knees. Thousands of soldiers will enter Gaza, in tanks, armored personnel carriers, under cover of massive air bombardments and navy gunboat fire.


Elite commandos from special forces units will likely also take part, carrying out targeted killings and other secret operations.

In the last round of violence, in May, when close to 700 rockets were fired on Israel, the Israel Air Force carried out the first targeted killing in five years, taking out Hamed al-Khoudary, who Israel accused of being the man in charge of transferring funds from Iran to terrorist groups in Gaza.

Another Hamas operative was struck while riding his motorcycle on Salah al-Din Street, near the city of Khan Yunis. The Israeli military also targeted the private homes of other senior Hamas activists.

The targeted strikes temporarily brought Hamas to its knees and a ceasefire arrangement was hammered out.

But in the next war, a ceasefire arrangement won’t be pounded out by airstrikes and targeted killings. IDF soldiers will have their boots on the ground, fighting in densely populated urban areas.

Their mission will be to remove the capabilities of Hamas, PIJ and other smaller groups quickly and effectively. The military is concerned about troops being static for too long and becoming easy targets for the well-armed terrorists fighting on their home turf.

With the knowledge that the home front will be pounded by incessant rocket and mortar fire in the next war, Israel has increased its air defense capabilities and has formulated plans to evacuate communities bordering the Gaza Strip.


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