If the data from the most recent recessions are extrapolated using this indicator alone, we can anticipate that the next crisis in the US will occur in no less than six months and no more than twenty. That is to say, a crisis will take place sometime between January 2020 and March 2021.
Never before in human history have we seen so much debt. Government debt, corporate debt, shadow-banking debt, and consumer debt are all at record levels. Not just in the U.S., but all over the world.