- Israel is concerned that Iran is beginning preparations to inflame its northern border with Syria via Hizbullah.
- Despite tension on the southern border, the IDF can deal with several fronts at the same time.
- The possibility of Israel launching a preemptive military strike should not be ruled out.
Commentators on the Arab world are watching Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot with interest following media reports that he canceled an important meeting in Germany called for next week, and the reasons for his cancelation remain obscure.
They believe it is connected to developments on the northern border, and not specifically to the situation in Gaza following the renewal of Egyptian contacts with Israel and Hamas to advance the understandings for calm.
The Iranian leadership is sure that Israel is weak, and this is the right time to strike against it.
At the 32nd International Islamic Unity Conference, which took place in Tehran on November 24, 2018, Iranian spiritual leader Ali Khamenei made the following statements about Israel:
The Zionist enemy crumpled against the Palestinian resistance after only two days… All this proves that the Zionist regime is significantly weakened… The pace of weakening is increasing.
What Are Iran and Hizbullah Planning?
Senior security sources in Israel are suspicious of secret activities by Gen. Qasem Soleimani, leader of the Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria and Lebanon, who is planning to inflame the northern sector against Israel in two ways:
1. Deploying Hizbullah and pro-Iranian forces close to the border fence on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, with the assistance of local (Druze and pro-Iranian) elements, which, in exchange for financial payment, would construct terrorist infrastructure for attacks against Israel.
These include laying mines and IEDs, firing anti-tank missiles at IDF patrols, and launching mortar attacks on Israeli communities in the Golan Heights.
Gen. Soleimani and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah prefer this option, instead of the attacks launched from southern Lebanon as it would neutralize Israel’s possible counterstrike and the destruction of Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure.Constructing factories inside Lebanon to upgrade the missiles in the possession of Hizbullah to become more accurate and capable of hitting strategic targets deep in Israel more accurately. These targets include Ben-Gurion airport, the atomic reactor in Dimona, refineries in Haifa, and various IDF bases.
2. Constructing factories inside Lebanon to upgrade the missiles in the possession of Hizbullah to become more accurate and capable of hitting strategic targets deep in Israel more accurately.
These targets include Ben-Gurion airport, the atomic reactor in Dimona, refineries in Haifa, and various IDF bases.
The working assumption of Hizbullah and Iran is that Israel would not dare to launch a preemptive strike on these factories out of fear that this would lead to an all-out war.
Syrian opposition groups left southern Syria in September, and the entire region is now under Syrian army control.
The possibility cannot be ruled out that Iran, via Hizbullah, is planning a new war of attrition against Israel from the Golan Heights border at the same time as the war of attrition with Hamas on the southern border through its “Return Marches” campaign.
The developments on the northern border are worrying. Israel’s freedom of aerial action in Syrian airspace is limited following the incident when a Russian spy plane was brought down by a Syrian air defense system in September, 2018. Russia blames the Israeli air force for the interception.
Russian transferred S-300 missile batteries to Syria, and with Russian guidance, these have been integrated gradually into the Syrian air defense system.
The possibility that Israel will launch a military preemptive strike on the Hizbullah weapons factories in Lebanon, before they become operational, seems very far off, but not illogical.
Iran and Hizbullah constructed these factories after Israel managed methodically and over a period of time to destroy game-changing advanced weaponry being transferred in convoys from Iran to Lebanon.
With the weapons’ destruction, Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani decided to construct the weapons factories inside Lebanon to prevent Israeli attacks.
We are now in a very tense period regarding security on the southern and northern borders, and with growing Iranian intervention in the region, no possible scenario can be ruled out. The IDF can handle several fronts at the same time. It has done so in the past, and it can also do it again in the future.
Israel is determined to protect the security of its citizens. But it may have no other choice other than to carry out actions that may not seem to be rational right now.
The move could explain PM Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to maintain
government amid political crisis
Two new Syrian military divisions, trained and led by officers of Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard special forces, the Al-Quds Forces,
have been mobilized on Syria’s borders, i24NEWS could reveal on Monday night.
Each division numbers more than 10,000 men, said i24NEWS
French service’s defense correspondent Mattias Inbar. One has
been sent to the border with Iraq, the second is currently at the
border between Syria and Israel.
According to i24NEWS, these troop movements, which represent
"a real danger on the northern border", is understood to
be one of the reasons Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu denounced calls for early elections last week as "irresponsible".
Two new Syrian military divisions, trained and led by officers
of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard special forces,
the Al-Quds Forces, have been mobilized on Syria’s
borders, i24NEWS could reveal on Monday night.
Each division numbers more than 10,000 men, said
i24NEWS French service’s defense correspondent
Mattias Inbar. One has been sent to the border with
Iraq, the second is currently at the border between
Syria and Israel.
According to i24NEWS, these troop movements,
which represent "a real danger on the northern border",
is understood to be one of the reasons Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced calls for early
elections last week as "irresponsible".
The IDF is currently in the middle of a 10-day training
exercise simulating a confrontation with Hamas in the
south and Hezbollah in the north. It comes amid an
ongoing spat within the IDF over the army’s readiness for war.
No comments:
Post a Comment