Lior Ben Ari, Amir Ettinger, Yoav Zitun, news agencies
It took nearly a year in Lebanon and just over a month in Gaza—but both of the ceasefire agreements that brought the wars to an end are now, simultaneously, at a critical juncture where they could collapse.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect on October 10, 2025, under a framework that the main issues would be resolved after the return of the living hostages, followed by other explosive questions, such as Hamas’ disarmament.
However, due to an inability to resolve the disputes—and amid the failure to return all the deceased hostages—questions are now being raised about Gaza’s future. Several senior officials in the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump fear deeply that his peace plan for Gaza—which was meant to officially end the fighting between Israel and Hamas—could collapse because major parts of the plan are not being implemented.
Under the first phase of the plan—during which all 20 living hostages were returned—Israel took control of roughly 53 % of the enclave's territory, including large agricultural areas, the border city of Rafah in the south and sections of Gaza City and Khan Younis, while nearly two million Palestinians were squeezed into displaced encampments and the ruins left under Hamas control.
The next stage of Trump’s plan—which is supposed to begin only after Hamas hands back all the deceased hostages, reported to be four—includes a further Israeli withdrawal behind the so‑called “yellow line,” the establishment of a temporary transit authority, deployment of a multinational security force and the disarmament of Hamas—but no clear timelines or mechanisms for implementation have been set.
Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel opposes involvement of the Palestinian Authority and there is uncertainty around the multinational stabilization force. In the absence of meaningful U.S. pressure, 18 sources interviewed by Reuters—including six Europeans and a former senior U.S. official—estimate that the yellow line could effectively become the de facto border between two separate Gaza zones.
Politico obtained documents shared with senior figures in Washington, which show that the next stages of the plan are unclear. According to the report, the documents were presented at a briefing last month at the U.S. Civil-Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat, which was established to closely monitor the ceasefire led by Trump. At the briefing, concerns were raised about whether the multinational International Stabilization Force for Gaza can in fact be deployed.
In one slide of the presentation, an arrow linking Phase 1 to Phase 2 of Trump’s plan is shown—with a question mark above the arrow—highlighting the uncertainty around the future of the initiative in Gaza. The presentation was divided into six sections, and it revealed that the challenges facing Trump and his U.S. allies in stabilizing Gaza and achieving a sustainable peace between Israel and Hamas are in stark contrast to the public and optimistic rhetoric of the president and his administration.
Nevertheless, the documents show that Washington remains committed to the deal it helped shape, despite the many on‑the‑ground obstacles. One diagram presented at the event outlined U.S. engagement plans for Gaza beyond security matters—including the possibility of overseeing Gaza’s economic reconstruction. Politico described these plans as “significant.”
The report also raises another dimension of U.S. involvement: Trump’s America First policy, which helped propel him to last year’s election victory. According to the report, if the plan for Gaza fails to deliver, Trump “may get mired in the Gaza quagmire”—contrary to his promises and to his stated reluctance to send U.S. troops into distant conflicts.
An additional obstacle for the Americans is Israel’s refusal to withdraw from Gaza as long as Hamas is not disarmed, and Israel’s fear that the terror organization is re‑establishing itself in parts of Gaza. Another significant concern is the composition of the so-called “Board of Peace” that would oversee the multinational stabilization force—Turkey’s name has already been linked to it, drawing Israeli opposition.
A slide in the U.S. presentation stated that one of the force’s legal orders will be that the U.S. supervises it. Further questions raised in the briefing include: What will be the force’s mandate? What are the rules of engagement and fire? How and from whom will it be made up? Where will it be deployed? And who will oversee its supervision?
Against this backdrop, Western sources warned that Gaza may in practice split into two zones—one under Israeli control, the other under Hamas—in light of the stalemate in implementing Trump’s plan. A Reuters report, citing six European sources involved in the efforts, said the next phase is stalled and reconstruction is focused only on the Israeli‑controlled side of the enclave. “Without progress, years of separation may follow,” the sources warned.
Meanwhile, the Israeli news site Shomrim reported Tuesday that the U.S. plans to establish a large military base in the Gaza border region. Israeli officials familiar with the blueprint say the base is intended for the international forces that will operate in the territory to maintain the ceasefire, and it could host several thousand troops. The estimated budget for its setup is around $500 million. In recent weeks, the Americans have been promoting the initiative with the government and the IDF, and have begun exploring potential locations along Israel’s border region.
In the meantime, amid all the unanswered questions, families in Gaza remain without electricity despite the ceasefire, relying on flashlights or solar‑charging stations. According to Reuters, Gaza needed 600 MW of power before the war; it is now without any supply at all.
Before the war, Gaza relied mostly on imported power from Israel, though the supply was already precarious. It received 120 MW from Israel, while its sole power plant delivered another 60 MW. Shortly after October 7, 2023, Israel imposed a “complete siege,” and power in Gaza was cut off when fuel at its power plant ran out within days. Some residents now use solar‑charging stations or private generators.
In March, Energy Minister Eli Cohen ordered the Israel Electric Company not to sell power to Gaza as a punitive measure against Hamas. But even after the ceasefire, returning power to Gaza will require massive infrastructure reconstruction. The war destroyed over 80 % of Gaza’s power distribution networks, with estimated infrastructure and machinery losses of $728 million.
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