The northern front is simmering again, and Israel may soon face an impossible choice.
One year ago, on Nov. 27, 2024, Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire agreement brokered by five mediating countries, including the United States. For nearly a year, that deal mostly held. But in recent weeks, the calm has given way to escalating strikes, rising tensions, and renewed questions about Lebanon’s willingness, or even ability, to rein in Hezbollah.
Israel has carried out a series of targeted strikes against Hezbollah assets in Lebanon, most notably killing senior military commander Ali Tabatabai in Beirut, along with four other Hezbollah operatives.
The operation followed Israeli intelligence assessments that Hezbollah has been attempting to re-arm and strengthen itself, again with direct Iranian assistance, despite commitments that the Lebanese government would disarm Hezbollah and Hamas operatives within its borders.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in recent days accused Israel of refusing to implement international resolutions, claiming Lebanon has adhered to the cessation of hostilities for nearly a year and has repeatedly presented peace initiatives. Similarly, Prime Minister Dr. Nawaf Salam wrote on X that Lebanon “will work through all political and diplomatic means” with regional and international allies to protect the Lebanese people and prevent further escalation.
But the central question remains: Is Lebanon truly unable to stop Hezbollah, or simply unwilling to disarm the Iranian-backed terror group?
According to IDF Brig. Gen. (Res.) Amir Avivi, the answer lies somewhere in the middle.
The Lebanese government and army are extremely weak, and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) themselves include significant Shia elements, some aligned with Hezbollah.
“We see the army trying [to disarm Hezbollah] but not being very effective,” Avivi told All Israel News. “If you do not degrade Hezbollah dramatically, it will be very difficult for the Lebanese government.”
Lebanon, he explained, is facing a deep economic crisis and is eager to join the Abraham Accords. But both the United States and Israel have made it clear that no agreements will move forward until Hezbollah is dismantled. Lebanon’s future prosperity, Avivi said, depends on it.
Despite Lebanon’s public criticism of Israel’s military actions, Avivi believes the country’s leadership privately welcomes Israeli strikes that weaken Iranian influence and shift Lebanon closer to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—regional powers with which Lebanon hopes to align.
“For Lebanon, Hezbollah is a big problem, and they are happy to see the IDF dealing with this issue seriously,” Avivi said. “Who would have thought that the Lebanese want peace with Israel? But when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke at the United Nations earlier this year about possible agreements with Syria and Lebanon, he was serious. With Syria this is a waste of time. With Lebanon, there is a real chance.”
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