Trump continues banging the war drums against Venezuela, without ever taking any real action to make good on those threats. Currently, around 15,000 personnel have been repositioned to the United States Southern Command’s area of responsibility (AOR). It has taken months to achieve this.
In the meanwhile, Venezuela’s regime as led by socialist Nicolas Maduro has had time to disperse its military assets and to call upon its allies to send reinforcements.
Is a Russian General on the Ground in Venezuela?
According to a recent report in The Warzone, a popular online defense trade publication, a senior Russian general, Oleg Leontievich Makarevich, has been deployed to Venezuela to head what is described as a “rotational advisory mission” of roughly 120 Russian troops.
The report details how these Russian troops have been placed in advisory roles for the Venezuelan Armed Forces, specifically in infantry, drone operations, special forces, military intelligence/signals intelligence, armor, aircraft, artillery, even dogs and domestic surveillance.
General Makarevich’s unit has been identified as the “Equator Task Force” (ETF) as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense. But it’s part of a larger movement of Russian forces into Venezuela. For instance, the Russians have been flying planeloads of military equipment into the country since the start of the geopolitical crisis between Caracas and Washington.
Further, Russians have allegedly been getting moved into Venezuela from the Russian Africa Corps—indicating the need for Russian troops with expertise in jungle warfare. Just as American advisers are embedded in nominally non-combat roles in Ukraine, it is likely that these Russian advisers will play a similar role for Venezuela.
Although, it has been speculated that the Wagner Group mercenaries in the country will be working directly with elite Venezuelan units, preparing to build an insurgency against the invading American forces (should the White House decide to initiate an attack).
Clearly, the Russians are attempting to project power into America’s strategic backyard the way that America has been projecting power into Russia’s Near-Abroad. If these reports are confirmed, it complicates American freedom of action and signals Moscow’s willingness to hedge geographically far from Ukraine.
There could even be a scenario wherein Moscow basically trades its position in Venezuela for America’s role in Ukraine.
With US forces active in the Caribbean at levels unseen since the last major war in 1989, a Russian advisory presence in Venezuela is a dangerous scenario. Suppose Russian troops are accidentally killed or injured by any possible fighting. The training of Venezuelan forces in drones, special forces, signals intelligence, and even domestic surveillance hints that asymmetric warfare is afoot.
If Russia provides not only advisory support but actual weapons (air-defense, standoff missiles) to Venezuela, as hinted by Russian political statements, then a US mission in the Caribbean might face higher stakes—escalation dynamics become more complicated.
For regional actors—even those not aligned with Moscow—the Russian presence becomes a signal: Russia is not only in Europe’s theater, but also well inside of America’s.
That could influence regional alignments, arms purchases, or intelligence cooperation.
In all, the United States needs to seriously understand that the Russians are not leaving Venezuela, and are placing their forces there for a specific reason—a reason that Washington doesn’t seem to appreciate. And that’s where grave miscalculations can arise.
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The old saying “don’t start something you can’t finish.”
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