Update(1058ET): This morning, Zelensky and Vice President JD Vance discussed the Trump administration's new Ukraine peace plan, marking the highest-level talk on 28-point plan so far, and soon on the heels of this Zelensky issued the following video statement which states in part...
"This is one of the most difficult moments in our history [...] Currently, the pressure on Ukraine is one of the hardest. Ukraine may now face a very difficult choice, either losing its dignity or the risk of losing a key partner."
He also said: "I will present arguments, persuade, and propose alternatives, but we will not give the enemy grounds to say that it is Ukraine that does not want peace. That will not happen." And: "We did not betray Ukraine then (on February 24), and we will not betray it now. I know that the people are with me."
The statement is tinged with defiant rhetoric aimed at Washington, especially given he talks of the "risk" of losing a key partner - in reference to the US, which has already sunk tens of billions into the war effort.
President Trump has said that next Thursday, Thanksgiving Day in the US, is a suitable deadline for the sides to sign the peace agreement. As for the immense pressure from the US Zelensky is talking about, Reuters reports:
The United States has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine to press it into agreeing to the framework of a U.S.-brokered peace deal, two people familiar with the matter said.
"The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Kyiv was under greater pressure from Washington than during any previous peace discussions, and that the U.S. wanted Ukraine to sign a framework of the deal by next Thursday," the report adds. Trump has also again admitted that Ukraine forces are fast losing ground on the battlefield.
In the meantime, Ukraine is reportedly in discussions with its more hawkish backers in Europe - France, Germany, and the UK - on a counter-proposal which would supplant the US peace plan.
Russia says it has yet to receive anything official from the United States regarding the new draft Trump-backed plan for ending the war in Ukraine. And already several media headlines say Ukraine and European leaders are signaling their rejection of it, as it presents too much of a compromise.
We've examined the widely leaked US plan for peace and its 28 points here, but one particular part of it which really stands out as objectionable from the Zelensky government's point of view is the demand for Kiev to hold elections within 100 days of the truce being signed.
Point number 25 of the 28 stipulates as follows: Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days. This is of course something Zelensky has resisted for years, arguing that martial law under the Ukrainian constitutions allows for the indefinite suspension of national elections.
His term expired in May 2024, but earlier this year he responded to allegations of simply wanting to hold on to power by asserting, "I’m focusing on the survival of our country, and I am doing it really all my term."
"I’m ready to speak about elections if you want," he had said, claiming that "Ukrainians don’t want, totally don’t want, because they are afraid, because otherwise we will lose the military loan, the war loan, our soldiers will come back home, and Putin will occupy all our territory."
However, public confidence in his government has been waning, especially as top leaders have been embroiled in an embarrassing corruption scandal, leading to the dismissal of several ministers and aides.
Last February, Zelensky actually floated the possibility of stepping down if it would lead to peace, but appeared to attach it to NATO membership. "I am ready to leave my post if it brings peace. Or exchange it for NATO," Zelensky had said in response to journalists' questions at security summit.
Interestingly, the draft peace document does provide 'Article 5-style' security guarantees for Ukraine, but also requires the country pledge to never join NATO. Below are a few of the points taken from the document which relate to no more NATO expansion - something which Moscow has long demanded as a precondition to ending the conflict:
- It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.
- Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
- NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
The above points are also interesting as they represent a tacit admission that NATO expansion was indeed a key cause of the war. This is something which prior Biden officials, as well as an array of mainstream pundits, have long sought to deny, calling it a 'pro-Russian' talking point.
As for the call for quick elections after the document's signing, one geopolitical analysts notes this would be in keeping with Putin's aims in the 'special military operation' - and that it would constitute the "regime change" the Kremlin has been seeking in Kiev.
The analyst writes:
Russia’s unstated goal of regime change in Ukraine would likely be fulfilled through these means since Zelensky’s popularity was already plummeting even before the latest corruption scandal dealt a deathblow to it. Given the knowledge of this point in the Russian-Ukrainian peace deal that Russia and the US have reportedly been working on in secret, the timing of this latest scandal initiated by the US-backed “National Anti-Corruption Bureau” can be seen in retrospect as a de facto coup against Zelensky.
While Europe too might agree to a 'new face' in Kiev, especially given the embarrassing levels of graft still ongoing in Ukraine's government, others in the EU and NATO are likely to rally behind Zelensk
1 comment:
The only way that Ukraine survives with the original borders intact is if Brussels decides to go full throttle and move their EU troops into the campaign. Unlikely. They know doing that will likely cause a nuclear response and both eastern and western continents will no longer be able to support life as we know it.
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