Trump’s attempt to build a “Budapest scenario” (i.e. a Putin-Trump summit grounded on the earlier Alaska “understanding”) was unilaterally cancelled (by the US) amid acrimony. Putin had initiated the 2.5 hr Monday call. It reportedly contained tough talking by Putin about the lack of US preparation towards a political framework – both in respect to Ukraine, but crucially also in respect to Russia’s wider security needs.
However, when it was announced by the American side, Trump’s proposal had reverted (yet again) to the Keith Kellogg (the US Ukraine Envoy) doctrine of a “frozen conflict” on the existing Contact Line preceding any peace negotiations – not vice versa.
Trump must have known well before the Budapest talks were mooted that this Kellogg doctrine had been rejected, time after time, by Moscow. So why did he repeat the demand for it again? In any event, the Budapest summit scenario had to be cancelled after the pre-agreed “set-up” call between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Secretary of State Marco Rubio ran up against a wall. As Lavrov again insisted that a Kellogg-style ceasefire in place would not fly.
It seems that the US Administration expected that its threats to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles amid toughening US rhetoric of deep strikes into Russia would be pressure enough to have Putin agree a freeze in the here and now format, with all discussion of details and a wider solution postponed, sine die.
Russian military analysts reportedly told Putin that Trump’s threats were bluff — even if the Tomahawk supplies were made available, the quantity would be limited and would not inflict any tactical or strategic defeat on Russia.
The course of events implies that either Trump did not grasp this Russian “reality” – despite two years of repetition that Russia would not budge on a “here and now freeze.” Or alternatively, that the “dark money” interests came down hard on Trump, telling him that a real peace process with Russia was not allowed. So Trump cancelled the whole scenario, muttering to the media that a Budapest meeting would have been “a waste of time” — leaving his Administration (US Treasury Secretary Bessent) to announce new sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies, accompanied by a call to allies to join with them.
Putin remains focussed on achieving a new Europe-wide security architecture, though Trump’s capriciousness and unseen constraints must put new calls by Putin or meetings into question. Putin is angry — many Russian “red lines” have been crossed; escalation is coming – perhaps at an unprecedented level.
The western Ruling Strata are making matters abundantly clear: Russia must be defeated. Escalation has already begun: New EU sanctions on Russian gas imports into the EU have been announced and overnight strikes on oil refineries in Hungary and Romania (the two being NATO states) were launched. Again, the message to EU states is clear: no backsliding. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk underlined on X the point: “All Russian targets in the EU are legitimate.” The EU is clearly willing to go to any length to make war on its own to compel adherence.
Given that the Kiev side finds it impossible to contemplate resiling from any part of its territory – whilst Russia retains the preponderance of hard force – it is hard to see how any negotiation is feasible at this time. Likely, Ukraine will be settled by a trial of strength. The EU urgency to its attempt to win Trump to its side likely reflects its fear of the accelerating and accumulating Russian military victories.
No comments:
Post a Comment