Sunday, January 12, 2025

Things To Come In 2025: War And Rumors Of War


What’s in store for the Middle East after a bloody year?
RT


The year 2024 marked a significant escalation in armed conflicts across the Middle East. Alongside relentless bombardments of Gaza, Israel expanded its military operations into Lebanon, targeting Hamas’ ally, Hezbollah, whose forces launched hundreds of rockets into Israeli territory. For the first time in two decades, Israel also engaged in direct confrontation with Iran.

Following Hamas’ attacks on October 7, 2023, Israel launched a ground and air offensive on Gaza, which continues to this day. The Strip remains under blockade, resulting in a dire humanitarian crisis. According to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, more than 45,000 people have lost their lives since the fighting began. Bombardments and a total blockade have turned life for Gaza’s 2.1 million residents into a living nightmare, depriving them of shelter and any means of leaving the region.

In May, Israel conducted a major operation in Rafah, in southern Gaza, seizing control of the Philadelphi Corridor – a 14km buffer zone along the border with Egypt. Hundreds of thousands of residents were forced to flee their homes, seeking refuge in schools, hospitals, and refugee camps, many of which were also targeted by Israeli airstrikes. Hunger and outbreaks of diseases, such as polio, have begun to spread due to acute shortages of food, water, and medical supplies.

The situation in Lebanon also sharply deteriorated. In late September, Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah. Over eight weeks, Israeli airstrikes and drones targeted militant positions in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and even the capital, Beirut. On September 27, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike. His death was followed by intensified clashes, with large-scale bombardments affecting more than 20% of Lebanon’s population – around 1.2 million people were displaced from their homes.

The clashes between Israel and Iran also reached a new level in 2024. Israel conducted two major strikes on Iranian military installations. In April, a commander of the Quds Force was killed, and in October, Israeli airstrikes targeted approximately 20 sites in Iran, including air-defense systems and facilities tied to its nuclear program. Iran retaliated with missile strikes, many of which were intercepted by Israeli air defenses with support from the US, the UK, and Jordan. However, some missiles hit their targets, marking one of the most serious escalations in recent years.

Meanwhile, the domestic situation in Israel around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains tense. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Despite this, his popularity within Israel has soared due to military successes in Lebanon and Iran. Internationally, Netanyahu has received substantial backing following Donald Trump’s re-election as US president. With Washington’s unconditional support, the Israeli leader is bolstered in pursuing his plans to expand settlements in the West Bank and intensify confrontations with Iran and its allies.


The conflict along the Lebanese-Israeli border has caused significant damage to the region’s infrastructure. Bombardments have disrupted power and water supplies, further deteriorating living conditions for civilians. Lebanese authorities are calling for international intervention, but the influence of external actors such as the US and France remains limited.

Israel’s attacks on Iranian military installations have heightened the risk of nuclear conflict. Analysts warn that Tehran may accelerate its nuclear program as a deterrent measure. Meanwhile, Israel continues to threaten further strikes, escalating regional tensions. Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye have taken active roles in mediating negotiations to prevent further escalation, but the positions of major global powers such as the US, Russia, and China remain contradictory. Their involvement is largely limited to political statements and providing military support to their respective allies and partners.

The year 2024 marked a turning point for Syria. The seemingly unshakable Assad regime, which had ruled for nearly half a century, suffered a decisive collapse. In early December, armed groups led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani and backed by Türkiye captured Damascus, ending the Assad dynasty’s rule.

The regime’s downfall began with a lightning offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which seized key Syrian cities, including Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, in just ten days. This success was made possible by the weakening of support from President Bashar Assad’s key backers – Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran – who were mired in their own crises throughout 2024. A lack of coordinated defense efforts and the fragmentation of the Syrian army played pivotal roles in the regime’s defeat.

After the fall of Damascus, Bashar Assad fled to Moscow with his family, leaving the country in chaos. This marked the end of a civil war that had begun in 2011, claiming at least 300,000 lives and leaving another 100,000 missing, according to UN estimates....



What to expect in 2025?

In 2025, the Middle East will remain a region of high instability and conflict, shaped by the events of previous years. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will continue to play a central role in the region’s destabilization. Following the devastating events of 2024, including the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, the situation remains critical. Israel is expected to persist in expanding settlements and ignoring the decisions of international institutions such as the UN, the International Criminal Court (ICC), and the International Court of Justice (ICJ). However, growing public outrage in Western countries and increased protests against Israeli actions may shift global opinion, though it is unlikely to affect the steadfast US support for Israel.

The returning administration of Donald Trump will maintain a staunchly pro-Israel stance despite significant political and economic costs for the US. This unwavering support will become a political and economic burden for Washington, undermining trust in the international system established after World War II. Nevertheless, Palestinian resistance, despite its losses, will persist through both diplomatic efforts and force, making normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states impossible.

On the Syrian front, the country’s new leadership will face massive challenges. Rebuilding destroyed administrative institutions and infrastructure will be the primary focus. However, regaining control over the entirety of the country will prove immensely difficult, particularly with external players supporting forces such as the Kurdish YPG/PKK in northeastern Syria. The new Syrian government will likely attempt to negotiate the disarmament and integration of these forces into the nation-building process. Should these negotiations fail, the government may resort to force, potentially igniting new waves of violence.

Regional and global players’ continued interference in Syrian affairs will exacerbate the situation. Moreover, whether Ahmed al-Sharaa can unify the country remains an open question, especially amid reports of emerging factions dissatisfied with the new Syrian government. There is a real risk that Syria could once again be engulfed in the flames of civil war.

Following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime, Israel, with the backing of the Trump administration, is expected to shift its focus to Iran. Increasing pressure on Tehran will become a central pillar of Israel’s foreign policy, supported by the US and its regional allies. This strategy will likely include military strikes, sabotage operations, and economic strangulation aimed at destabilizing Iran’s internal situation.

Western efforts to establish meaningful negotiations with Iran are unlikely to yield significant results. Confronted with growing isolation, Iran may adopt an even more hardline stance on its nuclear program. Under increasing external pressure and internal crises, Iranian leadership could announce the development of nuclear weapons. Such a move would represent a desperate attempt to safeguard the regime and maintain power, especially amidst threats of foreign intervention and internal instability. From Tehran’s perspective, nuclear weapons could serve as a guarantee of independence and a deterrent against direct military attacks.


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