The situation on the front for the Ukrainian army is bad. The loss of Velyka Novosilka, soon the loss of Toretsk and Chasov Yar, as well as the fact that Russian troops are only a few kilometers from the Dnipropetrovsk region show this fact on the ground. In the future, the situation for Ukrainian troops will only get worse, and the question now is whether the Ukrainian army can hold the front at all in next few months, bearing in mind that it is not realistic that peace will be established in that period.
However, this analysis will deal with an essential issue for the future of Ukraine, which is its demography. That is, Ukraine can be an excellent example of what happens to a state when it serves the interests of the globalists instead of its own interests.
According to estimates by UN experts in charge of population policy in Eastern European countries, 10 million fewer people live in Ukraine today than in February 2022. The information is dramatic and shocking for the future of Ukraine.
It is also becoming noticeable that the population is moving from zones under the control of Ukraine to zones under the control of the Russian armed forces. This phenomenon has caused discontent in Kiev, where such moves are perceived with indignation.
However, for the people of Ukraine, the reasons are simple — in Donbass, Luhansk region, Crimea – there is no mobilization, no forced Ukrainization and the accompanying violence in its implementation, and for the restoration of real estate (if those who come previously owned it) in that area they receive more than decent state subsidies.
The UN states that there are 6.2 million registered Ukrainian citizens who have fled to other European countries, and to that number should be added the unregistered (again, it is difficult to estimate how many there are, but this percentage usually hovers over 20 percent).
There are at least 1.3 million more in Russia, and the total number includes everyone who is currently in the USA, Canada, but also Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan. In short, the estimate of minus 10 million turns out to refer to the population that left Ukraine, regardless of the area in question.
When it comes to the internal distribution of the population, it can be claimed with somewhat greater certainty that almost 3 million people live in Crimea (of which about half a million have immigrated from other Russian regions, as the author of this text personally verified in 2022), about four million in Donbass, and one and a half million in Lugansk. At least another million live in parts of Zaporizhia and Chernivtsi regions that are integrated into the Russian system. In total, at least eight million people.
Which means that (a little) more than 20 million people, or let’s say between 20 and 25 million, live in the territory governed by the “Zelensky administration” and controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces today.
The information on the number of dead and wounded is being manipulated terribly. Depending on who presents it, the numbers differ by up to almost ten times. President Trump claims that the Ukrainians have lost 700,000 soldiers so far...
On the one hand, the number of people living “under the Zelensky administration” is continuously decreasing, and on the other hand, the number of victims (dead and wounded) is constantly increasing. It is also a question how many people among this remaining population declare themselves as Ukrainians.
The Zelensky administration continues to control cities and parts of several regions where a huge number of Russians and Russian-speaking people have traditionally lived, from Kharkiv, through Dnipropetrovsk and Nikolayevsk to Odessa, and even Kiev. As a result, there have been recorded fluctuations in the population towards territories under Russian control. However, this matter will become clearer only in the years after the end of military operations.
The Ukrainians have already become the tragic losers of the conflict, and as it continues, the tragedy will only deepen. It is illusory to say that those who fled will return; the experience of the former Yugoslavia is a good illustration of this.
It is also illusory to expect that after the end of armed operations everything will return to its previous state. This kind of “decay” has no end, and even if the armed conflict were to end today, there is a greater chance that in the next decade the number of inhabitants in the observed geographical area will decrease to 15 million, than to increase to 30 million.
What will remain of Ukraine and Ukrainians in the future?
From this, “population angle”, what is happening is a complete catastrophe for Ukraine. It is a path towards disintegration and atomization of the community, regardless of the fact that it is possible to argue about the constructed identity foundations of this (political) nation. Imagining how the diaspora will preserve identity and build national politics is, in practice, the same as believing that Ukraine will defeat Russia militarily or that London, Berlin and Paris really care about Ukraine.
The current nomenclature, the one that has been “pushing Ukraine towards conflict” since 2013, made up of politicians, generals, NGO workers, and various “influencers,” continues with fierce anti-Russian rhetoric, apparently expecting some unexpected turn in this strategic confrontation or new decisions by Western actors that could change the balance of power.
The de-Russification of Ukraine, which began in the 1990s, in three decades brought impoverishment of citizens, social problems, civil war, conflict with Russia, a huge number of dead and wounded, and a huge decrease in population, with a tendency for further population decline.
The strategic orientation of the “Ukrainian Russophobes”, which is manifested today in the current rhetoric, has led Ukraine to a geopolitical and strategic catastrophe. There is no doubt that the future of Ukraine is very unfavorable, and that all the strategic mistakes made in the last three decades are paying dearly. The example of the disastrous strategic policy led by Ukraine can serve as a lesson to other countries on how not to run a country.
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