JONATHAN TOBIN
There are a good many reasons to worry that the impending ceasefire with Hezbollah terrorists that Israel has chosen to accept is a bad bargain. A lot can go wrong, and there are no assurances that the quiet it promises will last. And yet, the deal that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to is probably the best Israel can get under the circumstances. Even critics of the decision must acknowledge that the Jewish state has not come away from the negotiations empty-handed but has achieved some real gains.
After a year of suffering incessant attacks on its northern communities that began on Oct. 8--just one day after the Hamas-led massacres in the south--Israel has finally forced Hezbollah and Iran to retreat from their determination to keep firing as long as Hamas is fighting in Gaza. This isolation of Hamas, which renders their continued efforts to sustain the war on Israel it began on Oct. 7, 2023, far more precarious, is a victory for the Jewish state.
So, too, is the fact that the last two months of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah have significantly degraded their capacity to inflict harm on the region. That's a defeat for Iran, which had hoped that the seven-front war on Israel it had incited could go on indefinitely, weakening the country and its citizens' resolve. Instead, they are the ones who have been diminished by military setbacks and vast losses inflicted on a group whose main purpose is to serve as a deterrent to attacks on Iran.
Equally important, this is a moment to consider that the setbacks dealt Hezbollah and Iran, coupled with the destruction of Hamas's military capabilities, were only made possible by the determination and the ability of one man to stand up to U.S. pressure to abandon the fight for Israel's security many months ago. It's difficult to imagine anyone other than Netanyahu could have stood his ground against Washington's pleadings and threats, and have gone on to achieve an outcome that leaves Israel's enemies far weaker than they were when the current conflict began almost 14 months ago.
For all of his faults and his stubborn refusal to cede power after so many years in office, as well as the fact that he bears some of the responsibility for the Oct. 7 catastrophe that happened on his watch, what Netanyahu has done in the year since then is truly remarkable.
Only someone with his steely determination and savvy understanding of the tricky dynamics of the U.S.-Israel relationship could have navigated the long months of war so skillfully. No possible successor in his own Likud Party or among his opponents in the Knesset could have stuck to his goals--and do so much harm to Hamas and Hezbollah in the face of the desire of his country's sole superpower ally to force Jerusalem to accept the continued rule of Hamas in Gaza and avoid direct conflict with Iran's Lebanese auxiliaries.
Whatever comes next--whether it is a renewed war with Hezbollah caused by their refusal to keep the ceasefire or to abide by its terms that demand they withdraw their terrorist cadres and weapons north of the Litani River, or the bloody continuation of the mopping up of what's left of Hamas's terrorists in Gaza--Netanyahu's leadership has been indispensable.
Reasons to worry
Those who are outraged at the deal with Hezbollah have reason to be concerned.
The Iranian proxy group has never kept its word about anything, let alone agreements to stop attacking Israel or to withdraw from the southern part of Lebanon over which it has largely ruled for a generation. For those who hoped the Israeli offensive that began in September would only end in the complete defeat of Hezbollah, the announcement of the agreement is a disappointment. That is especially true when one thinks of the sacrifices that the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces have made to achieve what may only be a temporary respite to the fighting.
Nor can Israel rely on the United States or France to take action to guarantee that Hezbollah will not simply move its terrorist forces and missiles back to Israel's border as soon as the IDF withdraws. No matter the provocation, only Israeli action (which will likely again be demonized and subjected to lawfare attacks by the international community) can defend the security of the Jewish state.
What's more, the tens of thousands of Israelis who were forced to flee their homes after the Iranian proxy group began firing on northern Israel last October have no reliable guarantee that they will be safe if they go back.
On top of all that, it must also be acknowledged that pressure from the Biden administration, which has always been more interested in appeasing Iran and forcing Israel to accept ceasefires with both Hezbollah and Hamas, was part of the equation that led to this decision.
Will that encourage whoever is in charge of U.S. foreign policy in the next two months--whether it is a visibly diminished Biden or someone else--to push for a binding U.N. Security Council resolution that would impose a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that will help what's left of Hamas to survive and ultimately take back power there?
Yet despite all of that, those inclined to view the cessation of war in the north as a defeat for Israel need to consider how much it has gained in the last several months.
