There are three current hot or cold wars: on the Ukrainian border, in the regions surrounding Israel, and in the strategic space between Taiwan and mainland China. All three conflicts could not only expand within their respective theaters but also escalate to draw in the United States.
And all three involve nuclear powers.
Various Russian megaphones routinely threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Some boast about sending strategic nuclear bombs or missiles against its Western suppliers, especially as the costs of Russian aggression mount and the humiliation of Putin escalates.
Nuclear Israel and near-nuclear Iran have both exchanged attacks on their respective homelands – and promise to do so again.
China likewise on occasion existentially threatens Taiwan. Its freelancing generals and spokesmen periodically warn Japan and the U.S. of dire nuclear consequences should they intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.
In all these theaters, there superficially appears to be stasis and deadlock: Israel is said to be bogged down in Gaza as it seeks to neutralize 400 miles of subterranean command-and-control installations and munitions, find and rescue surviving Israeli hostages, and take out the Hamas leaders. And no one believes that the degradation of Hamas will mark the end of the war, given the agendas of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran, to attack periodically and chronically the Jewish state.
Combined Russian and Ukrainian dead, wounded, and missing may be nearing one million. Experts argue about whether the current apparently successful Ukrainian counteroffensive towards Kursk inside Russia was merely a demonstration to gain diplomatic concessions. Or was it designed to take and hold ground inside the Russian homeland? Or intended to draw off Russian offensives to the southeast? Some call it brilliantly conceived but dangerous – given the risk of its ending like the ill-fated Battle of the Bulge German offensive of 1945 that achieved startling initial success but was soon ground down by superior numbers and ultimately weakened the overall German defense.
China has stepped up its harassment of Philippine forces and its rhetoric. It has upped its intrusions into Taiwanese airspace and waters while cementing strategic partnerships with Russia and Iran, even as it courts India and Turkey.
Yet for now, China is not especially eager to attack Taiwan, given that it feels it is steadily gaining momentum in psychologically, strategically, and politically strangling the Taiwanese.
Confusion and strategic pauses for the brief moment mark all these conflicts. In part, the hiatuses arose because of uncertainty surrounding the murky intentions and role of the United States. The latter is bogged down in an unpredictable if not bizarre election year, compounded by ambiguity about who is actually in control of the country and for how long, and who will be president after January 2025.
The 2024 race saw the first-ever presidential debate held well before the formal nomination of candidates, the sudden forced removal of President Biden from his reelection candidacy, the abrupt coronation of a once-deemed-unimpressive Kamala Harris as his replacement, the inability or unwillingness of Harris to meet the media or give interviews, the continued apparent debility of Biden as he enters the last six months of his presidential tenure, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and the near-even presidential polls.
While Russian and Ukrainian forces advance and retreat along their shared border, most experts privately feel that there is quiet consensus about an eventual armistice to end the Somme-like bloodbath. This will involve recognition of Russia’s control over the Donbas and Crimea that Putin attacked and de facto absorbed in 2014; a demilitarized border; and an autonomous and heavily armed but non-NATO Ukraine.
Currently, Ukraine is running out of manpower, given its losses, draft problems, and a quarter of the population having fled the country. Russia has suffered twice as many casualties as Ukraine and faced blows to its military prestige. It has so far found no tactical or strategic pathway to absorb Ukraine as it intended with its February 2022 surprise attack on Kyiv.
Turning to the second conflict, we find that Iran is now in a dangerous position of its own making. It has loudly promised Israel and boasted to the Muslim world that it will attack the Jewish homeland for a second time within a year. Hezbollah threatens to join in, perhaps along with anemic contributions from Hamas and the Houthis.
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