MORDECHAI KEDAR
I hesitated quite a bit about whether to publish this piece because of the panic it might cause in Israel. However, in the Middle East environment and particularly in Iraq, these things are known and serve as a topic of open discussion, so it is unthinkable that the Israeli public should not be aware of them as well, especially since they concern Israelis much more than the citizens of Iraq.
A source I've known for years--an expatriate from the Middle East, a supporter of Israel, who lives in Europe and is in continuous contact with people in Iran and Iraq--conveyed to me their assessment that Iran plans to launch a combined attack on Israel in the foreseeable future that will include all the forces at its disposal in several Arab countries:
In Lebanon: Hezbollah and Hamas, with many thousands of missiles, some of them precision-guided, and UAVs.
In Syria: Seventeen armed and ready combat units ("militias"): Fatimiun, Zinbioun, Nujabaa', Hezbollah, Abu Al-Fadhl Brigade, 'Asaa'b Ahl al-Haq, Khorasani Brigade and more. Iran has transferred a very large number of missiles and UAVs to Syria, and these are ready to be launched.
In Iraq: Dozens of militias, armed with missiles and UAVs.
In Yemen: The Houthis, who have Iranian long-range missiles and UAVs capable of reaching Israel.
In Gaza: Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, with missiles capable of disabling the Israel Defense Forces and Israeli Air Force bases.
It is likely that Iran will not launch anything directly from its own territory, so as not to expose itself to retaliation.
What follows is my interpretation:
Under the pretext of the duty of the Muslim world to save the Al-Aqsa mosque from the Israeli occupation and oppression, Iran will conduct a staged, comprehensive, integrated and coordinated attack on Israel. The first phase will be a shower of missiles and UAVs from all the aforementioned arenas together; the Iranian estimate is that the stock of Iron Dome interceptors will run out within two to three hours, after which the Israeli skies will be open and the air force degraded or grounded.
The first phase, the aerial one, will be accompanied by a cyber-attack on Israeli infrastructure systems. After a full day of cyber-attack and a rain of missiles and UAVs on military bases and civilian infrastructure, the second phase will begin. This will be a coordinated ground attack from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza by infantry forces mounted on dirt bikes and ATVs and equipped with anti-tank weapons, that will attack Israeli ground forces in order to reach Jewish settlements as quickly as possible.
The calculation of the Iranians is that the mobilization of Israel's reserves will take several days and will at best be partial due to the chaos that will ensue from the initial attack. IDF reinforcements will not arrive in time to the various fronts, and the regular forces will collapse within hours in the face of the ground assault, as happened in the Suez Canal and the Golan Heights during the Yom Kippur (1973) war.
The invasion of ground forces from Syria, Lebanon and Gaza will focus on Israeli settlements, with the aim of demoralizing the Israeli public and forcing the government to surrender in order to save the lives of the many Israeli civilians who will be captured by the Arab and Iranian militias. The Israeli media and especially the social media groups will increase panic among the Israeli public.
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