Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Experts Warn Of Imminent Russian Action In Ukraine

Fears and fighting spirit of a nation in Kremlin crosshairs: IAN BIRRELL reports from inside Ukraine as experts warn Russian invasion is imminent



The mood in Kiev is growing worried with a majority of Ukraine's 44million population believing an attack seems likely and citizen militias preparing for guerrilla warfare against invading forces

Ukrainian forces are substantially stronger and better equipped - boosted by Britain's supply of short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defence and some troops to provide training. Military analyst Yuriy Butusov said support from the UK was significant, adding: 'Putin has to face the facts. London showed Moscow that in the event of full-scale hostilities, Ukraine will be provided with emergency assistance with weapons.

'Putin's intentions are hard to discern: is he trying to bully Ukraine into abandoning hopes of joining Nato or are we witnessing a more sinister build-up to a major war in Europe?


Putin's intentions are hard to discern: is he trying to bully Ukraine into abandoning hopes of joining Nato or are we witnessing a more sinister build-up to a major war in Europe?




Certainly, there is disquiet in Ukraine over how its views become ignored in the geopolitical debate, seen so often as simply a clash between Russia and the West. 

For example, the country's exclusion from last week's failed talks between Russia and US diplomats.

In the frantic effort to avert war, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky today, followed by talks with other foreign ministers including Britain's Liz Truss and Russia's Sergei Lavrov.

Ukraine's defence chief Oleksiy Danilov has warned about 122,000 Russian troops are massed within 200km of the border – and 143,000 more within a 400km zone.

It is thought Russia needs 175,000 to mount a full invasion.



Tensions have been heightened by Friday's cyber-attack on government websites, which coincided with a warning from Washington that Moscow had sent saboteurs into Ukraine to mount a so-called 'false flag' attack as a pretext to justify a Russian invasion.

Russia has been building up its combat forces along the 1,200-mile border to encircle Ukraine, from Crimea in the south round to Klintsy in the north. 

That sits beside Belarus, where, ominously, Moscow's forces have begun arriving also for a supposed joint exercise.

So how would Kiev respond to any attack?

Clearly this depends on whether it was a full-scale assault – which would mark the biggest military attack in Europe since World War Two – or, more likely, a smaller incursion into the Russian-speaking areas of the south and east.

Most analysts think Ukrainian forces are still not a match for Moscow's military might but they are far stronger than in 2014 when, weakened by corruption, the Kiev government surrendered Crimea so limply.



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