From Washington to Berlin to Warsaw to Kyiv, everyone says that only Russian President Vladimir Putin knows what he plans to do with the 120,000 troops he has deployed to the Ukrainian border. But at this point, even if Putin decides not to invade, even if he withdraws all of his forces from the border zone he has already won a strategic victory of historic proportions against the United States.
Without firing a bullet, Putin and his 120,000 soldiers have fomented the unofficial – but very real – break-up of the NATO alliance.
NATO is rightly considered one of the most successful military alliances in history. It was founded in 1949 at the outset of the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States. Its purpose was to deter the Soviets from trying to expand their empire from Eastern and Central Europe into Western Europe. NATO’s success derived from two main factors.
First, NATO member states were by and large agreed that their common interest in preventing Soviet expansion outweighed their separate national interests, and so required collective action under the U.S. strategic umbrella. Second, the Soviets and America’s NATO allies all believed that the U.S. was strategically credible. The Soviets believed that the U.S. was serious about fulfilling its commitments to its NATO partners. And NATO members believed that the U.S. would make them pay a very severe price if they opted to blow off the alliance and cut a separate deal with the Soviet Union.
Today, NATO cannot act collectively against Putin in a coherent way because Germany no longer views Russia as a strategic threat, and no longer views the U.S. has a leader it needs to follow.
Much of the credit goes to Putin, who has been working towards this point for 15 years. Putin recognized that when used strategically, Russian energy exports could drive a wedge between NATO members.
Traditionally, Russian natural gas exports to Europe went overland through Poland and Ukraine. This meant that energy supplies to Germany and Western Europe were dependent on Russian energy exports to former Soviet bloc countries, and Germany needed to protect Poland and Ukraine to protect its own interests.
Today we see that Putin’s Baltic Sea gas pipeline – now known as Nord Stream 2 – did precisely what he hoped it would do. Over the past few weeks, the Germans have made little effort to hide that they are siding with Russia against Ukraine and their NATO allies.
But with all due respect to Putin and his successful use of energy exports as a strategic weapon, Putin couldn’t have pulled Germany away from NATO without Biden. Indeed, gas exports from Russia are more an excuse than an explanation for Germany’s moves.
The Germans feel free to walk away from their commitments to their NATO allies because they realize that the Biden administration won’t make them pay a price for their behavior. Like German Chancellor Olaf Sholtz, Biden has no intention of lifting a finger to protect Ukraine from Russia.
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**Rumors of War
“Rumors of war are flying with a fury out of Ukraine and Russia. Massive numbers of troops are on the move. Almost unfathomable levels of firepower are being mobilized. Jesus warned that the last days would be characterized by rumors of war. The rumor of war in Ukraine is superpowered by Russia’s repeated threat of using nuclear weapons. But Ukraine and several other former Soviet bloc nations fit Bible prophecy in another powerful way.
One of the most famous and detailed prophecies in the Bible concerns an invasion of Israel by a confederation of nations. Chapters 38 and 39 of Ezekiel give the details, including a specific list of the nations involved. The first two verses say, “And the word of the Lord came to me saying, ‘Son of man, set your face toward Gog of the land of Magog, the prince of Rosh, Meshech, and Tubal, and prophesy against him.’” [NASB]
It’s obvious from that passage and others that Gog is not a nation, but a national leader. The word “Gog” means “high,” “top guy,” or “supreme.” The first century Jewish historian, Josephus, wrote that, “Magog is called the Scythians by the Greeks.” The Greeks used the word “Scythia” to refer to the region north and east of the Black Sea. Today, that includes, not just Russia, but also Ukraine.
The Scythians also ruled the area east of the Caspian Sea that is today occupied by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. Each of these nations were once part of the Soviet Union. Vladimir Putin seems intent on bringing them back into the sphere of Russian control. Also, each of these nations is predominantly Muslim, which may also contribute to their desire to one day join a coalition of nations against Israel.
But the first step in Putin’s plan centers on Ukraine. In area, it is Europe’s second largest nation. It gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. At that time, Ukraine possessed one-third of the Soviets’ nuclear armaments. With 1,900 warheads, Ukraine then held the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. In 1994, Russia, Britain, and the United States signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. They promised to ensure Ukraine’s security if it gave up its large nuclear arsenal.
The sad and horrible lesson to every other nation in the world is that if you have nukes, don’t give them up ever — no matter what. Today, if Ukraine still had its nuclear weapons, Russia would not be threatening. It’s as simple as that. Promises from Britain and the United States were not worth the paper they were printed on.
The other protector of Ukrainian security was to be that benevolent nation known as Russia. Now, it all seems like a cruel joke. In 2014, Russia stole Crimea from Ukraine. That gave the Russian military better access to the Black Sea. Today, Russia’s goal in invading Ukraine does not seem to be an annexation of the country, but a move to place a puppet government there.
In all this, remember that no matter what their nations do, people can still turn to Christ. Iran is another key part of that Ezekiel 38 coalition. And Iran is experiencing a tremendous number of people turning to Jesus. Prophecy tells us what some nations will do, but that does not predetermine the actions of individuals within those nations.
Whatever Putin’s motivations (and there are many), one really important fact stands out. His actions fit Bible prophecy to a tee. At some point in the future, Ukraine will again come under Russian control. And it may be only a matter of days.”
—Hal Lindsey**
Great analsys John! Thanks for sharing.
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