Speculation Is Mounting Over Downed Ukrainian Plane

Speculation is mounting over whether the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Iran was shot down as the investigation runs into political roadblocks

• Speculation is mounting about what caused a Ukrainian passenger jet to crash in Iran on Wednesday morning.
• The crash happened shortly after Iran fired a barrage of missiles at US forces in Iraq, and it was not immediately clear whether there was any connection between the military action and the crash.
• However, the investigation is likely to be hindered by the tensions between the US and Iran. The plane that crashed was a Boeing 737-800 — typically, that would mean that Boeing and US investigators would participate and provide technical expertise, but it is unclear whether this would happen, or how it would work, in the current climate.
  
  
  Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 from Tehran to Kyiv burst into flames and fell to the ground within minutes of taking off. All 176 passengers and crew members aboard the Boeing 737-800 were killed.
  The crash occurred a few hours after Iran fired missiles at US forces in Iraq, raising questions about whether the plane could have inadvertently been hit.
  
  
  Iranian officials initially said that a technical issue was to blame and later that an engine fire caused the pilot to lose control, but there have been several contradictory and confusing statements. The head of Iran's Civil Aviation Organization, Ali Abedzadeh, later told the Iranian news outlet Mehr that there was no evidence of technical problems, according to reporting by The New York Times. He also said that the plane had not contacted the control tower about an emergency.
  
  
  The Ukrainian Embassy in Iran initially said that terrorism or an attack was not a factor, but it later removed the statement from its website, replacing it with one saying that it was too soon to know what happened.
  Adding to the speculation is doubt over whether an engine failure could cause a plane to crash. Commercial aircraft are designed to fly with a single engine in the event that one fails. An uncontained engine failure — in which shrapnel from a failed engine damages the engine casing, potentially damaging or destroying the rest of the plane – is rare.
  According to the airline, the plane was just three years old and had undergone maintenance checks two days before the crash.
  The airline also said that the flight crew, which included one extra pilot because of the scheduled length of the flight, was highly experienced and that it was unlikely that pilot error was a factor in the crash.
  
  

"Tehran airport is anything but a simple one. Therefore, for several years UIA has been using this airport to conduct training on Boeing 737 aircraft aimed at evaluating pilots' proficiency and ability to act in emergency cases," said Ihor Sosnovsky, Ukraine International Airlines' vice president of operations. "Given the crew's experience, error probability is minimal. We do not even consider such a chance."

The Boeing 737-800 is one of several variants from the previous generation of Boeing's 737 family of jets, the 737 NG series. The latest generation, the 737 Max series, has been grounded worldwide since March following two fatal crashes attributed to a faulty flight-control system. Both 737 Max crashes occurred within minutes of takeoff.

The crash could add to the crisis at Boeing that has been ongoing since the Max crashes. As scrutiny of the planemaker has continued, several potential hazards have been identified on other plane models, including the 737 NG.

Whenever an incident involving a commercial plane occurs, the investigation is led by the country where the incident occurred — in this case, Iran. Because it was a Ukrainian airline, Ukraine will also be involved.

Investigators from the country where the plane was made are also typically involved, along with the plane's manufacturer, both of whom provide technical support and expertise.

For this crash, which happened amid days of escalating tensions between the US and Iran since a US strike killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, that could prove difficult.

In a statement, the National Transportation Safety Board, the US agency that investigates all aviation accidents, suggested that various sanctions and embargoes on Iran — along with the recent military confrontations — could mean that the investigation will proceed differently.

"The NTSB is monitoring developments surrounding the crash of Ukraine International flight 752 and is following its standard procedures for international aviation accident investigations, including long-standing restrictions under the country embargoes," it said. "As part of its usual procedures, the NTSB is working with the State Department and other agencies to determine the best course of action."

Along with assisting with the investigation at the crash scene, the plane's manufacturer often runs the analysis of the plane's black box, which records flight data.

However, Abedzadeh reportedly said, "We will not give the black box to the manufacturer and the Americans."

Read the original article on Business Insider

Iran Changes Plane Crash Story As Ukrainian Theories Include Possible Missile Strike

Iran has changed its story about what caused a Boeing 737 operated by Ukrainian International Airlines to plunge out of the sky minutes after taking off from the airport in Tehran.

After initially blaming mechanical malfunctions for the crash, a version of events that was almost instantly refuted by video footage, experts and the airline in Ukraine, Iran is now claiming that UIA Flight 752 tried to turn back after take off, suggesting that the cause of the crash was something other than the misfiring of one of Iran's Russian-made missile-defense systems, according to Bloomberg. 

In a surprising move that wasn't initially expected, Iran has invoked an international agreement allowing it to receive assistance from other countries, including the US. A Ukrainian team has reportedly arrived in Tehran, and according to a report in Israeli newspaper Haaretz, investigators are looking for signs of Russian-made missiles among the debris at the wreckage site. 

After initially appearing to support reports of mechanical error, the Ukrainian government has officially changed its stance to supporting several theories, including the possibility that a missile or bomb blew the plane out of the sky.

In the US, American agencies like the NTSB are trying to figure out whether it'd be legal to engage with the Iranians under the terms of international sanctions, which President Trump is now planning to tighten. They’re also concerned about sending people to Iran given the recent strikes.

The four scenarios reportedly being studied, according to a senior Ukrainian minister, are the possibility of a mid-air collision with a drone, a terror attack with an on-board bomb, a missile strike and mechanical failures. 

The State Department issued a statement offering to assist Ukraine with the investigation, but notably that statement didn’t mention helping Iran. "The United States calls for complete cooperation with any investigation into the cause of the crash," it read. After dozens of Canadians died in the crash, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also demanded that Canada take part.