Turkey: Moving Closer And Closer To Russian Alliance While Turning Against U.S./NATO

Turkey: Turning on Washington to Benefit Moscow

by Stephen Blank and Peter Huessy

• "Turkey and [Libya's] Government of National Accord reached an unusual agreement to essentially carve up much of the energy-rich eastern Mediterranean between them — threatening to cut out Greece and Cyprus from the coming bonanza." — Foreign Policy, Keith Johnson, December 23, 2019.
  
  
• Turkey's confrontations with the US and NATO, of which it is a member, have served Russia well, giving Putin huge returns on a relatively small investment -- returns that are likely to grow in 2020.
  
  

Turkey's often seeming contradictory relations with the United States and Russia -- such as, for instance, Ankara's boosting of cooperation with Ukraine, on the one hand, and defending the Libyan government against General Khalifa Haftar's insurgency on the other -- likely stem from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's apparent drive to become a leading regional and global power.

To this end, Erdoğan has steadily constructed a repressive authoritarian regime resembling that of Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, as the March 31, 2019 municipal elections in Istanbul demonstrated, Erdoğan's domestic base, including within his own Justice and Development Party has narrowed in favor of the Turkish nationalist right.

To counter his weakened position at home, Erdoğan evidently thinks he needs to demonize America and resist US policies in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean.

In addition, on its economic front, in May 2019, Turkish ships invaded Cyprus's Exclusive Economic Zone and started drilling for gas. Turkey interposed its navy there, to deter any resistance, and now is not only increasing its drilling force, but is even talking about drilling "in the Black Sea and even in international waters."

Turkey's frequent need to rely on Russia is not new. For the past two decades, Putin has made improved relations with Turkey a cornerstone of his foreign policy. The strongest point of these relations has been economic (namely, bilateral trade and energy agreements). Turkey depends on Russia for 60%-70% of its annual gas imports, and with the imminent opening of the TurkStream pipeline in 2020, that percentage may well increase.

In response to criticism from Washington over these purchases, Erdoğan threatened to close the İncirlik and Kürecik bases in Turkey, which are used by the US military and are said to be of vital strategic importance to American and NATO defense.

Turkey's confrontations with the US and NATO, of which it is a member, have served Russia well, giving Putin huge returns on a relatively small investment -- returns that are likely to grow in 2020.