"Putin is capitalizing on the chaotic retreat of the US and Turkey's brutality toward the Kurds in order to assert Russia's leadership," Syria analyst Joshua Landis observed of a newly published Vladimir Putin interview. "He contrasts how Russia has stood beside its beleaguered ally, Syria, while the US has abandoned both its allies, the Kurds and the Turks," Landis added.
Putin said in the interview: "Syria must be free from other states' military presence. And the territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic must be completely restored."
Given this weekend's rapidly unfolding events, with state actors Turkey and the Syrian Army squaring up on front lines, Russia's role in all this is probably still the greatest unknown, but what do we know at this point?
Reuters revealed on Sunday that Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been in direct negotiations, with crucial Russian participation.
"The source close to the Syrian government said meetings between the SDF and Damascus had taken place before and after the latest Turkish offensive," according to the report.
PUTIN: ¨Syria must be free from other states military presence and the and territorial integrity the Syrian Arab Republic must be completely restored. ¨#Syria #Kurds #Turkey #OperationSpringPeace pic.twitter.com/xhYxAM38hN
— ivan (@ivan8848) October 12, 2019
Again given how fast all of this has played out, a number of pundits and analysts questioned: are we witnessing a Putin-brokered 'deal of the century' unfold?
We explained late last week that there are a number of signs suggesting this is the case, noting that Moscow had begun organizing "reconciliation talks" between Syria and Turkey, in what would truly be an unprecedented development, given President Erdogan's long-time position that Turkey won't negotiate with Damascus so long as Assad is in power, after the two cut diplomatic relations in 2012.
But Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov recently confirmed as much saying, "Moscow will ask for start of talks between Damascus and Ankara".
Putin's timing for such potential deal-making couldn't have been better, given that:
- A US ground retreat from the border area means Washington now has little active leverage over the situation (Trump has said he desires regional powers to sort it out).
- Syria's beleaguered Kurds now see Damascus as the only option for survival (and thus Syria's ally Russia).
- Turkey is now at odds with all major Western and regional powers over 'Operation Peace Spring,' is also hated in international media, and thus will be more sensitive to reputational damage.
- Turkey is now under a human rights and war crimes microscope.
- For many reasons, especially the recent S-400 deal and F-35 hold-up, US-Turkey relations are currently at their lowest point, with threat of new US sanctions on Ankara looming.
- With Washington ceding the driver's seat, all of the above means Putin alone can "check" Erdogan's actions.
Putin Planning "Deal Of The Century" Between Syria & Turkey As US Exits https://t.co/yD4JFrfHwx— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 10, 2019
Just ahead of this weekend's rapidly developing Syria events, Reuters reported that Putin is positioned to be the only voice with "positive" relations with Turkey, able to "limit" Erdogan's ambitions inside Syria:
In a phone call with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan before the operation against U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters, Russian leader Vladimir Putin, an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, made clear he hoped the incursion would be limited in time and scale, the sources said.
“If he [Putin] manages to fix this it would be considered a major political victory,” commented Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, as cited in the report. “Putin could argue that the Americans failed to sort this out but we managed it, which implies our approach to the conflict is more efficient than our geopolitical opponents,” he added.
And one senior former Russian diplomat confirmed to Reuters further that, "If Turkey limits its operation to a 30-mile security zone inside Syria and conducts a quick operation, Russia is likely to tolerate it."
And even CNN now reluctantly admits that:
Russia is already by far the strongest foreign power operating in Syria, and President Vladimir Putin has allied himself with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, throwing the full weight of the Russian military behind the Syrian Army.Now, a planned Turkish operation to "clear" Kurdish forces from the Northeastern Syrian border zone could give Putin a chance to expand Russian influence — to the alarm of US hawks.
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