Yossef Bodansky,
Salami explained that in 2019 Iran was entering the second step of the Islamic Revolution. In the first step — 1979-2019 — Iran focused on the survival and consolidation of Islamic Iran. “The second step of the revolution is the step that rearranges the constellation of power in favor of the revolution,” Salami stated. Consequently, “Iran’s Islamic Revolution will be on top of this constellation... In the second step we will be thinking of the global mobilization of Islam.”
Salami then elaborated on the current strategic posture of Iran. There was no longer a viable threat to Iran, so the country could now focus on its ascent as a leading regional power.
Hence, Salami stated, Iran had seized the initiative and was now “engaged in a full-fledged war against the Global Arrogance” spearheaded by the US and Israel “in all fronts”, as a result of which Iran “is turning the enemies’ maximum pressure campaign into their maximum begging”.
Tehran was convinced that Iran had crossed a major threshold in the confrontation with the US, and that the US no longer constituted a viable threat in the Persian Gulf. Tehran determined that Israel, furthering its own and the US’ interests, was, therefore, the primary threat to Iran’s long-term vital and strategic interests.
Salami announced that destroying Israel was now an “achievable goal”.
Four decades after the Islamic Revolution, Iran had “finally managed to obtain the capacity to destroy the impostor Zionist regime”, he said. “This sinister regime must be wiped off the map and this is no longer … a dream [but] it is an achievable goal.” Salami reiterated that not only the IRGC had “the capability to annihilate” Israel, but that Israel must be “wiped off the world [map]” as soon as possible.
“The Islamic Republic has prepared the capability to annihilate Israel and this regime must be wiped off the world’s geographic history,” Soleimani stated.
He said that Israel’s military doctrine was based on “striking resistance forces before they can be turned into a threat and start an all-out war because they cannot afford being involved in a full-fledged war”. Iran could not permit this situation to drag on and on. Therefore, Iran had developed a multi-faceted strategy against Israel, aimed at deciding the war quickly using both Iran’s long-range missiles and proxies. Tehran was not afraid of an Israeli strike because Israel was too weak to attempt such an ambitious undertaking. The reason for this was the internal strife within Israeli society. Nilforoushan noted that Israel’s “people are poor and there are too many ethnic, cultural and political divides in their society.
A war will drag Israel’s regime to the threshold of annihilation.” Therefore, “Israel is not in a position to threaten Iran”.
“Iran has encircled Israel from all four sides. Nothing will be left of Israel,” Nilforoushan said. “Israel lacks strategic depth.” Nilforoushan explained that “because of [this] lack of strategic depth, if only one missile hits the occupied lands, Israeli airports will be filled with people trying to run away from the country.”
Meanwhile, the war will involve Iran’s regional allies and particularly Hizballah. Hizballah would “liberate northern Israel in case a war breaks out. ... This will certainly happen, as Hizballah has a good capability to do it,” he assured. There should be no doubt about the end of such a war. “If Israel makes a strategic mistake, it [will have] to collect bits and pieces of Tel Aviv from the lower depths of the Mediterranean Sea,” Nilforoushan concluded.
Yossef Bodansky,
All of the recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East have not been lost in Jerusalem.
Even as Israel remained immersed in a major political crisis in the aftermath of two inconclusive parliamentary elections, the security cabinet and the defense establishment are focused on the looming Iranian threat and the specter of a major war. The US betrayal and abandonment of the Kurds, reluctance to retaliate against Iran, and overall intent to withdraw from the Middle East both emboldened Tehran and deeply worried Jerusalem that Israel would find itself alone facing a major war with Iran, its allies and proxies.
Jerusalem concluded recently that it was no longer possible to discard the possibility of a major surprise attack by Iran and its main proxies —
Hizballah and the HAMAS — which would aim to hit and destroy national infrastructure in the Israeli rear as well as inflict heavy civilian casualties, a known sensitivity of Israeli society.
While Jerusalem was making strenuous efforts to be able to detect and forestall preparations for such a surprise attack, the Israeli Government was increasingly apprehensive that this might not be possible and that Israel would, therefore, face a protracted and painful major war.
Israeli Intelligence now believed that Tehran had recently reached the same conclusions: namely, that there is no escape from a major war with Israel.
For Iran, the attrition, costs and delays caused by the Israeli strikes were painful, but they have failed to reverse the consolidation of the ongoing Iranian access to the Mediterranean. With the war in Syria subsiding and the US threat in the Persian Gulf virtually removed, Tehran saw a unique opportunity to move quickly for the consolidation of an irreversible Shi’ite Crescent.
Moreover, the ongoing Turkish invasion and prospects for clashes with Syria made it imperative for Iran to secure the on-land route for a significantly larger flow of supplies and reinforcements. Hence the growing sense of urgency. Therefore, Israeli intelligence concluded, Tehran had resolved that there must soon be a dramatic breakout that would enable Iran to consolidate the posture of a major regional power and project this on the Persian Gulf as well.
The Houthi UAV strikes on the Saudi oil installations in mid-May and mid-September 2019 served as a wake-up call for Israeli intelligence.
The extent of the damage caused and the accuracy of the hits exceeded all prior estimates of the capabilities of Iran and the Iran-proxies. Israeli intelligence sources told Arie Egozi of Breaking Defense that both Saudi Arabia and the US suffered “a total and embarrassing (intelligence) failure” and “had no idea Iran was planning to attack the Kingdom’s oil facilities”.
Israel, commemorating the national trauma of the surprise attack of the October 1973 War, is watching anxiously the latest developments in Iran and the Middle East as a whole.
The audacity of the new Iranian doctrine is clear, and so are the pertinent undertakings throughout the greater Middle East. The repeated Iranian assertions of both the commitment and ability to destroy Israel are unnerving for Jerusalem. However, the mullahs in Tehran have thus far been prudent and leery of taking unnecessary risks.
Will the combination of the seeming urgent imperative for a dramatic breakout and the unique strategic and military opportunities tempt the mullahs to grow bold and initiate war?
Or might the building tension and mounting military preparations on both sides, Iran and Iran’s proxies and Israel, have lives of their own, leading to an eruption of violence by design or accident?
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