Scientist Marcus Oscarsson predicts that the Sweden Democrats could receive nearly one third of the vote, Fria Tider reports.
Oscarsson, known from Sweden’s TV4, thinks the right-wing Democrats may receive 31.4 per cent of the votes at best.
The party, which is led by Jimmie Åkesson, has already become the largest party in the latest Yougov survey. Based on this survey, state scientist Oscarsson, calculated what Åkesson’s party could at best be able to get.
As pollster Yougov underestimated the results of the Sweden Democrats in the election four years ago, Oscarsson sees some opportunities for the party.
“In YouGov’s final measurement before election night, SD received 10.2 of YouGov. After all votes had been counted, the final result landed at 12.9. In other words, SD’s final score was 1.26 over YouGov’s final measurement.
“If 24.8 per cent (the polling result now) is multiplied with the same factor, SD is currently landing 31.4 per cent on Sunday,” writes Oscarsson on Facebook.
As the party’s main competitor, the Social Democrats is polling around 23 per cent, Oscarsson’s prediction could make the Sweden Democrats win by a landslide.
He admits that the measurement institutes have refined their models since, but at the same time, point out that voters’ dissatisfaction with the government’s immigration policy is probably even greater in this election.
In addition, he believes SD’s voters are less likely to participate in opinion polls.
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