Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Rumors of war...

In today's article from The American Thinker,"The New Middle East Peril", several interesting ideas are discussed which highlight the precarious situation Israel is in. More importantly, also discussed in this article is how much the entire world is threatened by Iran today:

In an unwanted "first," Israel turns out to be the first country in history to face a massed attack by intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). Ballistic missiles are launched upward at an angle, like mortars, and reach high altitude before coming down in a parabolic or orbital trajectory. They therefore pose a different problem for anti-missile defenses, because they come in very fast, accelerated by gravity.

Israel's enemies can't compete with its air force, so they have shifted to massed ranks of computer-controlled missiles.

Thus, Israel is surrounded by hostile nations with ballistic and cruise missiles, including Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. SCUDs carry a half-ton of high explosive. In another year or two, the Iranians will have a nuclear device, and even now they could launch dirty nukes, which use conventional explosives with radioactive metal.

Israel is only the most obvious domino. The Tehran regime has had its eyes on Saudi oil and the sacred cities of Mecca and Medina for thirty years. There is no limit to their ambitions for conquest. That's what they say in so many words.

The Europeans are getting really scared, as they should be. Sunni Arab nations have been anxious about Iranian imperialism for years. The Russians are playing it both ways...

Only Obama's America isn't worried. In fact, Obama has mentally flipped the source of danger, as Leftists always do, by blaming the victim. Israel has been told, in effect, that the United States will not help defend it unless it surrenders its defensive buffer area on the West Bank and the Golan Heights. That means that Israel's civilian population will be within reach, not only of IRBMs and cruise missiles, but of more primitive rockets and mortars. Hamas and Hezb'allah, not to mention Iran and Syria, have never left any doubt of their intentions once they have the Israelis at their mercy.

All this puts Israel in its greatest danger in many decades. If Israel conducts a preemptive attack on Iranian nukes, it can do so only in the very short term, a matter of weeks. The IDF does not have the capability for long, sustained air attack. Only the United States has that ability. When Iran inevitably attempts to retaliate against a preemptive attack, only the United States has the anti-missile defenses in the Gulf to stop a massive Iranian missile attack. That is why Ahmadinejad has positioned IRBMs in Syria, Lebanon, and perhaps Gaza -- to penetrate any defenses against its own missile launches.

That is the current situation. Now take a look at Israel's (poor) options:

There are two plausible options for Israel. One is to wait and hope for the best while Iran develops nuclear weapons. Maybe Obama will be out of power in 2012, and a saner president will be in charge. Perhaps NATO can expand to include Israel and other sane nations in the Middle East, like Jordan and Egypt. But NATO crucially depends upon America's word to come to the defense of endangered allies. American guarantees were credible for forty years of the Cold War. They are no longer credible today, given Obama's policy decision never to use nuclear weapons, even in self-defense, against conventional attack. America's credible threat to use nuclear weapons was the only thing that stopped Soviet tank divisions from overrunning Europe. Obama has now officially abolished that defense.

The second option is for Israel to go nuclear as soon as Iran does. That is what happened with India and Pakistan. As soon as the Pakis exploded their first bomb, so did India, but they did not attack each other. That has led to a classic nuclear standoff in Southeast Asia. Nuclear standoff also led to the U.S.-Soviet equilibrium in the Cold War.

If nuclear standoff is the logical outcome, Israel would be foolish indeed to surrender its buffer territories against conventional aggression. Netanyahu's best strategy might be just to dig in and prepare for every contingency. Obama will threaten and twist arms, the way he does. He will bluff and intimidate, the way he does. Israel must not give in.

Of course the third option, which receives the most attention - is for Israel to take out Iran's nuclear facilities. I am still betting that we'll see this outcome - if we are still here.

Also under the category of "Rumors of War" we see the following articles:

"Israel says N. Korea shipping WMDs to Syria"

"Iran trying to start Israel-Syria war"

It is so amazing that "rumors of war" was something that Jesus felt compelled to add to His list of signs of this age. With modern-day surveillance capabilities and communication of bits of information within seconds throughout the world, we have the ability to discuss war rumors daily. Again, something we have in this generation for the first time in human history.

The countries surrounding Israel are engaged in an arms buildup which is unprecedented.

And they have one common goal - to destroy Israel. Unfortunately, that goal isn't just a rumor.

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