Friday, February 12, 2010

Iran's End Game

First, to the news:

More threats of "sanctions": "EU sanctions against Iran 'within days'"

...and THIS time, they REALLY mean it....sigh.


"The European Union could announce "very strong sanctions" against Tehran within "days or weeks," Finnish foreign minister Alexander Stubb said on Thursday (11 February). Last week, Iran declared itself a "nuclear state," prompting the US to call for tougher sanctions."

Its really not worth spending any more time on this topic. Iran has made it crystal clear, over and over and over again, that sanctions won't work. The EU and the U.S. don't seem to understand this. They are dealing with this situation as if it is a "political" situation, and assuming that a "political" solution will work. They do not understand that this is a holy war, and Ahmadinejad and the clerics of Iran are not concerned with sanctions. The desire to destroy Israel, as they have stated on so many occasions is not an idle threat - its a religious mission. Big difference.


Then we see this:

Ahmadinejad warns Israel against military move"


"Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel should be resisted and finished off if it launched military action in the region, state broadcaster IRIB reported on Thursday."

"If the Zionist regime should repeat its mistakes and initiate a military operation, then it must be resisted with full force to put an end to it once and for all."

"Ahmadinejad, who has often predicted the imminent demise of the Jewish state, said Iran would remain on the side of regional nations including Syria, Lebanon and Palestine."


Then this...

"Next war with Israel will be regional"


"Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal warned that if war breaks out with Israel it will not be limited to the Gaza Strip but will involve the entire region, in an interview with London-based Al Hayat newspaper that was published Friday."


Reviewing numerous commentaries and articles regarding Iran's big announcement has led to some interesting perspectives.
I have been saying for a year or two that it seems apparent that Iran is attempting to "bait" Israel into attacking their nuclear facilities, and now this seems the case more than ever.

By drawing attention to Iran yesterday and then announcing that Iran is now "nuclear" due to their ability to enrich uranium, we can see how this is a VERY provocative act by Ahmadinejad. As the EU and the U.S. discuss the ever-present threat of sanctions, Ahmadinejad has sent a loud message to the world: Not only is he unconcerned with the prospect of sanctions, he will move ahead with nuclear development in a VERY overt way.

This has been the case for at least a couple of years now. Every time the "west" moves towards these "sanctions", Ahmadinejad will come out with provocative statements in a very public manner.

As before, I believe Ahmadinejad wants an Israeli invasion. What would this accomplish?

I see two separate scenarios:

1. Iran already has a nuclear weapon, perhaps obtained from Russia, N. Korea, or through terrorists on the black market. I believe any of these possibilities could have already happened. If so, in the event of an Israeli "attack", Ahmadinejad could claim that Israel used "nukes" on Iran (presumably Israeli bombs against nuclear facilities could release nuclear radiation, which could be used as "proof" that Israel used nukes). This would give Ahmadinejad a perfect opportunity to attempt to use his nuclear weapon against Israel. Additionally, he would have the full support of a highly inflamed Muslim community in the Middle East, who would rapidly arm up to fight Israel.

(of course we know a nuke cannot be launched against Israel, biblically, because a nuke would destroy Israel, and we know that won't happen. So if he DOES have a nuke, it will not be successfully launched against Israel. Perhaps it could accidentally land on Damascus?)

2. Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. Much of the above would still apply, but in this case, Ahmadinejad could use the anti-Israeli sentiment - a sentiment which would clearly prevail in the Middle East (more than ever, upon an Israeli "attack" against Islam - the whole area would be inflamed like never before) to assist Russia into forming a coalition to attack Israel.
The surrounding region of radical Islam would see this as an opportunity to set up a massive invasion against Israel.

Either way, it seems apparent that Ahmadinejad is almost BEGGING Israel to go after these nuclear facilities. They are desperately trying to paint Israel into a corner so that they have no choice but to "invade".

Israel may have no choice. It is very clear that once Iran obtains a nuclear weapon, they will use it against Israel - they have made this abundantly clear in their repetitive calls for the destruction of Israel.

What happens next?

The EU and U.S. will probably impose some sanctions, and these sanctions will have no effect - other than to buy Iran more time in their nuclear development. Presumably Israel realizes this, and will continue with their plans. At the same time, we see the tensions between Israel and Syria/Lebanon/Hezbollah continuing to heat up - and one must realize that Iran is pushing those buttons.

The end-game for Iran is the destruction of Israel. An "invasion" of Iranian land by Israel would serve as a perfect opportunity to set up a massive invasion against Israel. A massive attempt to invade Israel by such a coalition has been described in the book of Ezekiel, specifically chapters 38-39. We may be watching the early phases of this process now, as Iran continues its posturing and "baiting" Israel for an attack.

We shall see. I still target this summer for the fireworks to begin; it is hard to imagine the lid being kept on this powder keg much longer than that. We shall see.

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