Iran is planning to ignite the region by expanding its attacks in the near future, including strikes against American and “Zionist” targets, according to sources familiar with a US intelligence assessment.
Tehran is nevertheless weighing whether to strike Israel, as Iranian decision-makers understand that the Israeli response would be unrestrained.
According to the assessment, another factor in Tehran’s calculations is its desire to bring about a change of government in Israel.
Sources familiar with the matter say Israel’s ongoing election campaign is a key consideration for Tehran. Iranian decision-makers are taking into account that an intense war with Israel could strengthen the right-wing bloc or, in an extreme scenario, lead to the postponement of the election.
That calculation is another factor weighing against an expansion of Iran’s attacks to Israel.
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